[kictanet] Pondering mobile competition

Wed Aug 25 16:40:25 EAT 2010

Hi Walu,
After Nigeria (15-16 million subs), Kenya is the next most important asset  
for Bharti - its worth shaking up the Kenyan market. Kenya is the fifth  
biggest mobile market in Africa (after Nigeria, Egypt, RSA, Algeria). I'd  
not be surprised if Zain/Bharti DOUBLES its subs in 2010. Not necessarily  
churn from Safaricom (or others)....it may not be empirical enough info,  
but indications from Twitter/Facebook...and even from listers here....it  
looks like its just not the cost conscious BOTP who are migratory....

On Aug 25, 2010 2:41pm, Walubengo J <jwalu at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Andrea,

> yes, indeed these are interesting times. but not for me, at least not yet.

> The high costs of voice communications have for a very longtime  
> socialized me into the (peculiar?) habit of NOT talking. I have grown  
> used to alternative means of communication and just feel too old to  
> suddenly start yapping. So of what use is 20bob, 8bob, 3bob, 2bob or even  
> 1bob per minute voice call if I rarely talk anyway ;-)

> My prayer is that these price wars will eventually move over from the  
> Voice to Data (internet) markets. That will be the day I will really get  
> excited...

> walu.
> nb: me-still-thinks Zain will not cause any significant dent on Safcom  
> 80% existing market share but shall instead gain 80% of all the NEW  
> subscribers over the next couple of months...but perharps am just being  
> biased since am told the Zain new owners
> have the money to sustain "loses" for longer periods of time(even 5yrs)  
> in order to cause a serious dent on the market leader's position. May the  
> best man and woman win.

> --- On Tue, 8/24/10, Andrea Bohnstedt  
> andrea.bohnstedt at ratio-magazine.com> wrote:

> From: Andrea Bohnstedt andrea.bohnstedt at ratio-magazine.com>
> Subject: Re: [kictanet] Pondering mobile competition
> To: jwalu at yahoo.com
> Cc: "KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions" kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
> Date: Tuesday, August 24, 2010, 4:38 PM

> The 'abuse' complaint was silly, I think: Zain's network was congested  
> from day one of their tariff launch. I'm sure, very very sure, that  
> telecoms professionals at both Zain and Bharti are, well, professional  
> enough to anticipate the need to increase network capacity if
> they launch such an aggressive tariff.

> You've seen the fun little leaked exchange between Rene Meza and Michael  
> Joseph - Zain approached Safaricom in the evening asking for capacity on  
> the Safaricom-owned link, and Joseph promised to look into this in the  
> morning. The interconnection agreement between both companies states that  
> this protocol can take up to seven days, as far as I understand.

> http://www.ratio-magazine.com/201008203586/Kenya/News-Analysis-Telecoms-Price-Wars-Gone-Dirty.html

> Either they could have just increased capacity before the launch, or, if  
> they were worried about alerting Safaricom to this, then just suck up and  
> tell customers that the network will be congested for another seven days.

> So for Zain to come out the next morning and shout about abuse is
> dishonest and a cheap marketing ploy that I think they really don't
> need.

> I'ma happy capitalist. Competition is a good thing, in Kenya as  
> elsewhere. So I'd like them to compete on the strength of their services  
> and concepts, not by overnight accusations of 'abuse'.

> Mind you, if Zain kill of Orange and Essar, we'll have a bit less  
> competition in terms of numbers, but hey ... :)

> Happy phone calls,
> Andrea

> On 24 August 2010 14:34, Emmanuel Khisa oloo.khisa at googlemail.com> wrote:

> Hi Andreas,

> You have spoken for me on this one...I have also wondered since  
> zain/bharti lodged their complaint with CCK over clogged network, were  
> they just playing spoilt kid or do they have a valid claim? My opinion is  
> that since they have experienced an unanticipated rise in subscribers  
> they didnt have the network infrastructure to support these calls and so  
> quickly blame the rival and make them look bad. But then again maybe they  
> have a valid case against the boys in green.

> Nonetheless the winner here is the consumer. Shall we safely say that we  
> have entered the third mobile revolution.

> On Tue, Aug 24, 2010 at 1:56 PM, Andrea Bohnstedt  
> andrea.bohnstedt at ratio-magazine.com> wrote:

> I'm wondering:

> Will CCK strictly enforce the cut-off deadline for unregistered SIM cards  
> at the end of August? Are Zain making sure that everyone picking up a new  
> line also register them immediately?

> If price war is Zain's strategy, will they have enough money left to  
> invest in infrastructure and customer service once their subscriber  
> numbers go up significantly? Will they be able to scale up both systems  
> quickly enough?

> Telkom Orange are cited in the media as complaining that the interconnect  
> rate also applies to their fixed line service and that this is not even  
> covering their costs  
> (http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Telkom%20unhappy%20with%20interlink%20fee/-/1006/995372/-/o9pm5az/-/).  
> I wonder if the two big ones having it out won't kill the two small ones  
> first?

> Bharti/Zain have also launched free sms alongside lower on and off-net  
> calling rates and free minutes in Nigeria:  
> http://telecomyatra.afaqs.com/news/?sid=1652_Bharti+subsidiary+Zain+introduces+free+SMS+in+Nigeria

> Happy afternoon,
> Andrea

> _______________________________________________

> kictanet mailing list

> kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke

> http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet

> This message was sent to: oloo.khisa at gmail.com

> Unsubscribe or change your options at  
> http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/oloo.khisa%40gmail.com

> --
> Andrea Bohnstedt
> Publisher
> +254 720 960 322
> www.ratio-magazine.com

> -----Inline Attachment Follows-----

> _______________________________________________
> kictanet mailing list
> kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke
> http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet

> This message was sent to: jwalu at yahoo.com
> Unsubscribe or change your options at  
> http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/jwalu%40yahoo.com

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/pipermail/kictanet/attachments/20100825/a39a824a/attachment.htm>