[kictanet] Huawei interview on China-Africa Podcast

Sun May 26 15:29:44 EAT 2019

Hi Patrick
Your questions are good idea ones. At the moment it's still too early to answer most of those questions. A lot is changing on a daily basis and no-one really knows yet how long the current situation will remain or what impacts it may have on others in the industry. As you've rightly pointed out, the whole ecosystem will suffer from arbitrary and wide-ranging restrictions like these.

The ARM issue is very complicated and there's no official opinion from us or ARM yet, just very much speculation from many commentators, but in general I believe all existing licenses we have for ARM are fine and suffice for existing chipsets, but it may affect s development of future chipsets.

Adam

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M: +254-790985886<tel:+254-790985886>
Senior Director, Public Affairs
Huawei Southern Africa region
From:Patrick A. M. Maina <pmaina2000 at yahoo.com>
To:Adam Lane via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
Cc:Adam Lane <adam.lane at huawei.com>
Date:2019-05-26 15:07:39
Subject:Re: [kictanet] Huawei interview on China-Africa Podcast

Thanks for sharing Adam, and for the candor. Some quick thoughts...

1. It will be interesting to see whether Huawei infrastructure can stay within SLA bounds over time, for critical enterprise applications - once the chip substitution strategy kicks in. There must have been commercially and/or technically material reasons why US chips were preferred by Huawei over substitutes.

2. Can Huawei guarantee infrastructure upgrade-ability (and long-term stability + performance) without proprietary US components? Is there enough time to catch up to years of US R&D?

3. Looks like Chinese tech companies should have teamed up to acquire Red Hat to mitigate their server OS dependency risks (link #1). Now IBM, a US company, owns Redhat. Is IBM immune to the trade war? Hoping there will be no "announcement" from that end.

Excerpt: "Red Hat plans to offer solutions backed by technical service for Huawei servers, including Huawei's rack, blade, and high-density servers, as well as the KunLun Mission Critical Servers."

4. How important is Europe market to Huawei's survival? How will it impact the company's future viability / cash flows - and how will that impact Africa, given the heavy dependence? Will loss of Europe revenue impact Huawei's ability to fund the numerous "Plan B" projects that have to be concurrently executed - together with additional forward-looking R&D?

5. How does ARM pullout affect Huawei's "Plan  B" for smartphones? Can TSMC (link #3) really fill the gap? How fast and for how long?

Excerpt from Wired (link #2): "The open-source version of Android is designed for ARM-based chips. It also works on x86 processors, made by Intel, AMD, and others, but those US-based companies had already cut ties with Huawei as part of the sanctions. Which means, absent ARM, Huawei’s most obvious backup plan effectively goes poof. The company would need not only to redesign its own chips from scratch—a process that takes years—it would find itself cut off from the world’s most popular operating system. This is like telling Coca-Cola that it can’t use carbonated water."

Let's hope the trade war does not continue for too long because everyone stands to lose. Paradoxically I'm actually rooting for Huawei to prevail / survive because it could lead to greater levels of diversity and choice within the global tech ecosystem.

Also hoping that African decision-makers will use this opportunity to demand "no spy" "no back-doors" agreements (and independent security and quality assurance arrangements) with Huawei as part mitigation for the lock-in risks, pending the development of more robust longer-term dependency mitigation solutions.

Have a nice weekend.

Links:

1. Huawei Announces Partnership with Redhat (before IBM acquisition)
https://www.huawei.com/en/press-events/news/2017/4/huawei-oem-agreement-redhat

2. (Opinion) If Huawei Loses ARM's Chip Designs, It's "Toast"
https://www.wired.com/story/huawei-loses-arm-chip-design/

3. TSMC will continue making chips for Huawei
https://www.gsmarena.com/tsmc_will_continue_making_chips_for_huawei-news-37196.php

Brgds,
Patrick.

Patrick A. M. Maina
[Cross-Domain Innovator | Independent Public Policy Analyst - Indigenous Innovations]

On Saturday, May 25, 2019, 3:45:19 PM GMT+3, Adam Lane via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:

For anyone with 50 minutes to spare and interested to listen to this podcast interview I did… Eric and Cobus do go for the fairly tough questions.

https://chinaafricaproject.com/podcast-china-africa-huawei-adam-lane/

[AUDIO] Like it or Not, Huawei is the Indispensable Tech Company in Africa

[EDITOR’S NOTE: This episode was recorded before the United States government announced that it would blacklist Huawei and blocked the company from using Google’s Android operating system and other apps.]

It is hard to overstate Huawei’s singular importance in the development of Africa’s information technology sector. Over the past ten years the company, often armed with state-backed loans from China, has built significant portions of Africa’s IT infrastructure, everything from networking to broadband connectivity to new cloud data centers in places like Egypt and South Africa. 70% of all 4G networks across the continent were reportedly built by Huawei.

But while Huawei’s presence in Africa is pervasive it’s also controversial. Allegations that Huawei was involved in Chinese spying efforts against the African Union prompt similar questions like those being raised by the United States who challenge the company’s independence from both the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese government.

“The U.S. is going to have to be strategic about how they approach this challenge. You can’t just blunder in and say, ‘It’s us or them.’ China does provide things that the continent needs.” — Joshua Meservey, Heritage Foundation senior analyst<https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/19/for-africa-chinese-built-internet-is-better-than-no-internet-at-all/>

Although African stakeholders contend that security and privacy concerns surrounding Huawei are important, most do not believe they are paramount issues. Instead, access to affordable, high-quality telecommunications infrastructure is much more important.

But now that the United States is closing in on the company, blocking Huawei from using the Android operating system, African telecom operators are likely starting to worry about what happens if Washington similarly blacklists Huawei’s use of components that are used in all that networking gear now running their phone and data networks.

If Huawei is forced out of those markets, it could be cataclysmic for African telcos who would find it difficult, if not impossible, to switch to American, Korean or European vendors.

The bottom line is that African telecommunications operators now rely on Huawei gear, making the Chinese company truly indispensable in the operation of their networks.

Huawei, like almost every Chinese company, is notoriously averse to interacting with the media and rarely grants extended, on the record interviews with no pre-conditions.  So, it was a bit of a surprise when Adam Lane, senior public affairs director for Huawei Kenya, offered to appear on the podcast. He joins Eric & Cobus for a wide-ranging discussion on all aspects of the company’s operations in Africa and what the mood is like inside the firm.

Show Notes:

•        IT Web Africa: Safaricom describes Huawei issue as ‘worrying’<http://www.itwebafrica.com/kenya/245917-safaricom-describes-huawei-issue-as-worrying> by Vincent Matinde

•        Daily Nation: What Huawei restriction means for Kenya and Africa<https://www.nation.co.ke/news/What-Huawei-restriction-means-for-Kenya-/1056-5124102-4g7e18z/> by Aggrey Mutambo

•        Business Insider South Africa: If you own a Huawei phone in South Africa, here is everything you need to know about the Google crisis<https://www.businessinsider.co.za/huawei-news-in-south-africa-what-is-happening-with-my-phone-2019-5> by Phillip de Wet

•        Foreign Policy: For Africa, Chinese-Built Internet Is Better Than No Internet<https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/19/for-africa-chinese-built-internet-is-better-than-no-internet-at-all/> at All by Amy Mackinnon

About Adam Lane:<https://www.africahealthbusiness.com/speakers/adam-lane/>

At Huawei since 2014, and based in Nairobi since 2016, Adam is currently responsible for working with governments, intergovernmental organizations, NGOs, the media and other stakeholders with a focus on the Kenya and East Africa region. Adam helps these groups understand how to use ICT for Development in their strategies, policies and programs; as well as developing partnerships and cross-sector collaboration with various actors in the ICT ecosystem including social enterprises. Adam has a strong focus on digital health in the region and is also actively engaging with those in the Internet of Things space.

Previously, Adam was based in Huawei’s HQ as a Director for Corporate Sustainable Development responsible for Huawei’s global flagship project to bridge the digital divide as well as thought leadership on the digital divide. In 2015 after an extensive research effort around the world, Adam published Huawei’s white paper on Digital Enablement summarizing the challenges and solutions to bridging the digital divide (www.huawei.com/minisite/digital-enablement). He then set-up a new digital divide project related to e-health in Kenya building on the findings from this white paper working with a Kenyan social enterprise and helping them scale up their e-health project.

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