[kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving Knowledge Economy? OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo

Fri Aug 5 12:00:52 EAT 2011

Maybe on this energy thing, in view of globalization, a shrinking world and
geopolitical developments we should send one James Mwangi (Equity), to the
Inga and try get the grand inga on our side of the equation. (investments,
BOT , financing etc etc), Environmentally friendly or not, the Mighty congo
will likely have us all sorted for a long long time.

On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 11:45 AM, David Otwoma <otwomad at gmail.com> wrote:

> Dear Dr. Ndemo,
>
> It is true the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) of 2011 t0
> 2031 aims at above 18,000 MW generation capacity, the 2010 to 2030 had
> less than 18,000 MW, while that of 2009 to 2029 was below 15,000 MW.
> This (2011-2031) was the 4th LCPDP and preparations for the next (2012
> to 2032) is underway. It has room for upward projections as we are now
> aware that while GDP may grow at 5%, growth for electricity supply
> should be 8% (conservative i.e. KenGen figures) to 12% (realistic i.e.
> KAM figures)
>
> In S. Africa as of 2010, ESKOM, with a generating capacity of 38 200
> MW from 20 power stations, is one of the largest utilities in the
> world, and generated approximately 98% of South Africa's electricity.
> Generation was primarily coal-fired, but also includes two nuclear
> power stations at Koeberg (1,950 MW), two gas turbine facilities, two
> conventional hydroelectric plants, and two hydroelectric
> pumped-storage stations. Despite the above, demand exceeded supply
> capacity, and South African power exports have already been restricted
> and hence all projects planned by the South African Power Pool ground
> to a halt 3 years ago. S. Africa plans to bring onto its grid 9.600 MW
> from nuclear power by 2030. Best lesson is that a country will look
> internally first before reaching out when faced with a bad situation.
> Kenya could borrow a leaf here!
>
> In contrast to S. Africa, Germany had installed electricity generating
> capacity of 120, 000 MW (100 times Kenya's current capacity). From
> this Germany produced 566.9 billion kilowatt-hours (Bkwh) and consumed
> 524.6 Bwkh of electric power. The largest share of this production (61
> percent) came from conventional thermal sources (burning own and
> imported coal), followed by nuclear (28 percent), and other renewables
> (7 percent from mainly wind). Germany has an active electricity trade
> with neighboring countries, though it is usually a net exporter,
> Germany’s electricity grid industry association reported that the
> country exported 34.5 Bkwh of electric power while importing 22.4
> Bkwh.  Germany being an electricity secure country it can afford to
> export, it can shut down its nuclear power plants and remain
> sufficient, and it does not have a history of using emergency diesel
> generators to supply electricity to consumers! Kenya could also borrow
> from that nationalism aspect as emergency power enriches a few at the
> expense of multitudes!
>
> Ni hayo tuuu.
>
> Enjoy your Furahi day all.
>
> Kind regards,
>
> David
>
> On 8/4/11, bitange at jambo.co.ke <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
> > David,
> > Thank you. The following statement worries me:
> > Least Cost Power Development Plan which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to
> > have in excess of 18,000 MW.
> >
> > There is no medium income country in the world that has less than 40,000
> > MW.  If by 2030 we want to be a medium income country, we must aim at
> > 50,000.  Just look at South Africa with 45,000 and still experiencing
> > power outages.
> >
> >
> > Regards
> >
> >
> > Ndemo.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >> Dear Dr. Ndemo,
> >>
> >>> 4. This energy thing is critical.  The technology on Coal has greatly
> >>> improved that you can have clean coal.  We must at least do 5,000 MW
> >>> from
> >>> this source for us to catch up.  We also must step up geothermal to
> >>> fully
> >>> exploit the green energy available.  In Northern Kenya we can use wind
> >>> energy since it is naturally available.
> >>
> >> On the outset your plan to put 50% on agriculture and 40% on
> >> manufacturing is spot on.
> >>
> >> My interest here is to enlighten you on energy, if you allow. Lets
> >> start with a story. 14 years ago while in Hungary I learnt that they
> >> generated more than 45% of their electricity from nuclear power plants
> >> and it was the duty of the government to install electricity in any
> >> habitable home (where human beings were living and residing in). For
> >> return and appreciation the citizen so provided with electricity paid
> >> per month an equivalent of a loaf of bread! If now less than kshs. 50.
> >>
> >> That aside on the caption above. V2030 is a non starter without
> >> affordable, quality and sufficient electricity which currently
> >> constitutes wood fuel and other biomass accounting for about 68% of
> >> the total primary energy consumption followed by petroleum at 22%,
> >> electricity at 9% and others including coal at about less than 1%.
> >> Solar energy is extensively used for drying and to some extent for
> >> heating and lighting, the latter mainly by middle class Kenyans.
> >>
> >> On electricity alone, we have the Least Cost Power Development Plan
> >> which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to have in excess of 18,000 MW of
> >> which nuclear share will be 4,000 MW. We have geothermal potential of
> >> 7,000 MW and hence assuming we step up its utilization from the
> >> current 210 MW we would still have a shortfall on the aim of
> >> generating 18,000 MW. Our coal may give us 2,000 MW. To increase we
> >> would have to import coal and hence aim having coal powered coal
> >> plants at the coast. Its true technologies for clean coal burning are
> >> available but the moment you apply them cost of electricity production
> >> goes higher and hence it (coal) loses its competitiveness against
> >> nuclear and burning oil. All countries on earth that have
> >> industrialized burnt gas, oil, coal and utilized nuclear for base load
> >> i.e. 24/7 all year round assured ,quality and sustained availability
> >> of electricity.
> >>
> >> Wind, solar and hydro although cheaper in the short term they are not
> >> available throughout, and hence are not reliable for industrial needs
> >> (but they can go a long way in peaking arrangement i.e. taking the
> >> load off the grid when used in households, offices that are
> >> constructed in future enabling utilization of natural lighting and
> >> installing solar panels etc.).
> >>
> >> Imagine a nuclear power plant at Isiolo (or there abouts). With cheap
> >> electricity one can pump water from Arthi and Tana river in the former
> >> North Eastern Province and irrigate land; produce from the farming
> >> would enable good health from eating well and setting of value
> >> addition industries meeting your aim of 50% on agriculture and 40% on
> >> manufacturing.\
> >>
> >> Currently electrification rate in Kenya is 15% (47% in Nairobi and
> >> less than 2% in most rural Kenya), 50% in Cameroon and Nigeria, 65% in
> >> Ghana, 70% in South Africa, 98% in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria
> >> and Libya! We need to stop comparing our electrification rate with
> >> Somali, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi who are all below 15%!
> >>
> >> Kind regards,
> >>
> >> David
> >>
> >>
> >> On 8/4/11, bitange at jambo.co.ke <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
> >>> Collins,
> >>> 1. We are in the same boat with strong winds.  I am simply saying what
> >>> many people have said and we did not listen.  In 1989 I made a proposal
> >>> to
> >>> the Kenya Government on how we could independent.  The highlights of
> the
> >>> proposal was to focus on modernizing agriculture through mechanization
> >>> and
> >>> setting aside large tracks of land where we could take advantage of
> >>> economies of scale.  I said our future food security would be in threat
> >>> due to climatic changes.  I said that land sub division should be
> halted
> >>> and start rural urbanization to create land for agriculture. My thesis
> >>> then and now was that subsistence farming was undermining economic
> >>> growth.
> >>>
> >>> In my report I likened our situation with Switzerland.  Switzerland has
> >>> a
> >>> population of 8 million in an area of 15,940 square miles (size of
> >>> Central
> >>> Province of Kenya).  From here they it feeds her population and sends
> >>> the
> >>> surplus to Africa.  Further I said we were wasting a lot of money in
> >>> Tourism to entertain just a few people.
> >>>
> >>> You can prove me right today but then I spent my entire holiday moving
> >>> from one office to another trying to explain what would be a problem in
> >>> my
> >>> country.  Eventually I sat down with the then Director of Political
> >>> Affairs in the Ministry of Foreugn Affairs.  He simply told me "young
> >>> man
> >>> you can go back to your USA here you are going to waste your time".
> >>>
> >>> 2. We are all creative in a way and really thank you for supporting my
> >>> "candidacy".
> >>>
> >>> 3. 50% on agriculture then 40% manufacturing.  ICT does not need a lot
> >>> of
> >>> money to implement.  On average most countries spend 6% of their annual
> >>> budget on ICTs.
> >>>
> >>> 4. This energy thing is critical.  The technology on Coal has greatly
> >>> improved that you can have clean coal.  We must at least do 5,000 MW
> >>> from
> >>> this source for us to catch up.  We also must step up geothermal to
> >>> fully
> >>> exploit the green energy available.  In Northern Kenya we can use wind
> >>> energy since it is naturally available.
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Regards
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Ndemo.
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>> 1: Ill jump into this albeit late and begin with a reference to a
> >>>> scriptural
> >>>> parable of the talents in Matthew 25. The moral being that to whom
> much
> >>>> is
> >>>> given, much is expected and the converse being true. as a rhetorical
> >>>> question (you can answer if you like), have you made maximum use of
> the
> >>>> two
> >>>> talents you were given to deserve three in round two.
> >>>>
> >>>> 2: It is indeed a positive thing that you would even consider a Ndemo
> >>>> Tosha
> >>>> because in the bigger picture of things, it would be a definate
> >>>> improvement
> >>>> from the status quo. I like that you have Ideas and visions about what
> >>>> can
> >>>> be needed to solve what, ICT indeed might be the holy grail in
> >>>> improving
> >>>> process and equalizing a lot of the bumps that are exploited by
> >>>> uncreative
> >>>> Kenyans for profit.
> >>>>
> >>>> 3: Onto my questions: Between Agriculture, ICT, Infrastructure and
> >>>> Manufacturing, how would you allocate say theoretically a 1trillion
> >>>> budget
> >>>> (just for these) and what would be the justification for leaning to
> >>>> which.
> >>>> The devil would be in the details but a rough estimate would show
> >>>> direction.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> 4: Mention something about a) somalia, b) Southern sudan, c) EPAs and
> >>>> d)
> >>>> Kyoto viz a viz cheap energy.
> >>>>
> >>>> cheers...
> >>>>
> >>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 11:31 AM, aki <aki275 at gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>> Thank you Dr Ndemo for the comments.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I'd also like to add that govt policies and programs are the initial
> >>>>> catalyst drive because the private sector is what it is i.e. does not
> >>>>> fund
> >>>>> research or development ( not in Kenya ). And for many decades
> >>>>> economic
> >>>>> policies have placed favour over import versus local development, we
> >>>>> are
> >>>>> at
> >>>>> a stage today that it would probably takes us another 40-50 years to
> >>>>> even
> >>>>> design/produce the simplest semi-conductor available on the market
> >>>>> today.
> >>>>> The same design can be done at University levels in other countries.
> >>>>> We
> >>>>> are
> >>>>> really at a tough place because if we don't fast track with imports,
> >>>>> we
> >>>>> will
> >>>>> get left behind. And if we don't implement long term ways towards
> core
> >>>>> development, we are bound to become literally a "sales,marketing
> >>>>> and consultants" country which only has very short term benefits.
> >>>>> Today,
> >>>>> we
> >>>>> give the chance to external partners to help with technology needs
> and
> >>>>> systems, yet we are capable of creating or building upon these given
> >>>>> the
> >>>>> correct environment. It will be our biggest loss in future if we do
> >>>>> not
> >>>>> change course and take on the internal development segment with force
> >>>>> and
> >>>>> commitment. Just as the US identified itself as a major defense
> >>>>> exporter
> >>>>> economy thereby creating most of the advance
> >>>>> systems-engineers-mulit-million
> >>>>> dollar industries--highly educated employment, I think we also need
> to
> >>>>> define what we want to do and how to get there.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Starting at Sciences is really good, but would you kindly add what
> >>>>> esle
> >>>>> would be the catalysts towards creating and sustaining internal
> >>>>> development?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Thank you.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 10:43 AM, <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>>> Aki,
> >>>>>> You now can understand why we need to stop business and general
> >>>>>> degree
> >>>>>> programmes.  This is why we are more of traders than industrialists.
> >>>>>> I
> >>>>>> went to US for studies in the 1980's.  In 1987 I was President of
> >>>>>> International Students at the University of Minnesota.  We were
> 5,000
> >>>>>> foreign students in a student population of 120,000. The majority of
> >>>>>> students were from Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea.  Of the
> >>>>>> Asian
> >>>>>> students, 98% were in engineering courses the remaider were in
> >>>>>> creative
> >>>>>> art degree program.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> These countries became what we call Newly Industrialized Countries
> >>>>>> (NICs).
> >>>>>> In economic comparative terms, they were behind Kenya.  Today we buy
> >>>>>> everything from them.  They manufactured nothing then.  Infact we
> >>>>>> used
> >>>>>> to
> >>>>>> love at the Hyundai Ponny that was first manufactured by Koreans.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> We now must remove all fees for any student enrolled in science and
> >>>>>> creative degree programs.  The rest can pay.  When we started
> >>>>>> producing
> >>>>>> more computer graduates, we started seeing application development
> in
> >>>>>> Kenya to the extent that the world has started to recognize.
> >>>>>> Similarly,
> >>>>>> if we indeed want to industrialize, we must move to science.  There
> >>>>>> are
> >>>>>> no
> >>>>>> options.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> India has just realized this and they are taking jobs from
> >>>>>> overheating
> >>>>>> China.  Our comparative advatange in this region is the human
> >>>>>> resource.
> >>>>>> Let us develop it, support it and guide it to the right direction.
> >>>>>> Regional influence is what will matter in the days to come. As such
> >>>>>> we
> >>>>>> must endeavor to see that Vision 2030 is realized in 2020.  This is
> >>>>>> possible.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Regards
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Ndemo.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> _______________________________________________
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> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> --
> >>>> *“The twentieth century has been characterized by three developments
> >>>> of
> >>>> great political importance: the growth of democracy, the growth of
> >>>> corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of
> >>>> protecting corporate power against democracy�€ *
> >>>>
> >>>> ~  Alex Carey ~
> >>>>
> >>>> Tel No: 0x2af23696
> >>>>
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> ICT
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>
> --
> David Otwoma,
> Chief Science Secretary,
> National Council for Science and Technology,
> Utalii House 9th Floor,
> Mobile tel: +254 722 141771,
> Office tel: +254 (0)20 2346915,
> P. O. Box 5687 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya
> email: otwomad at gmail.com & otwoma at ncst.go.ke
> www.ncst.go.ke
>
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> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for
> people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and
> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT
> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.
>
> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors
> online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth,
> share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do
> not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.
>

-- 
*“The twentieth century has been characterized by three developments of
great political importance: the growth of democracy, the growth of
corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of
protecting corporate power against democracy”*

~  Alex Carey ~

Tel No: 0x2af23696
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