Maybe on this energy thing, in view of globalization, a shrinking world and geopolitical developments we should send one James Mwangi (Equity), to the Inga and try get the grand inga on our side of the equation. (investments, BOT , financing etc etc), Environmentally friendly or not, the Mighty congo will likely have us all sorted for a long long time.<br>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 11:45 AM, David Otwoma <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:otwomad@gmail.com">otwomad@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;">
Dear Dr. Ndemo,<br>
<br>
It is true the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) of 2011 t0<br>
2031 aims at above 18,000 MW generation capacity, the 2010 to 2030 had<br>
less than 18,000 MW, while that of 2009 to 2029 was below 15,000 MW.<br>
This (2011-2031) was the 4th LCPDP and preparations for the next (2012<br>
to 2032) is underway. It has room for upward projections as we are now<br>
aware that while GDP may grow at 5%, growth for electricity supply<br>
should be 8% (conservative i.e. KenGen figures) to 12% (realistic i.e.<br>
KAM figures)<br>
<br>
In S. Africa as of 2010, ESKOM, with a generating capacity of 38 200<br>
MW from 20 power stations, is one of the largest utilities in the<br>
world, and generated approximately 98% of South Africa's electricity.<br>
Generation was primarily coal-fired, but also includes two nuclear<br>
power stations at Koeberg (1,950 MW), two gas turbine facilities, two<br>
conventional hydroelectric plants, and two hydroelectric<br>
pumped-storage stations. Despite the above, demand exceeded supply<br>
capacity, and South African power exports have already been restricted<br>
and hence all projects planned by the South African Power Pool ground<br>
to a halt 3 years ago. S. Africa plans to bring onto its grid 9.600 MW<br>
from nuclear power by 2030. Best lesson is that a country will look<br>
internally first before reaching out when faced with a bad situation.<br>
Kenya could borrow a leaf here!<br>
<br>
In contrast to S. Africa, Germany had installed electricity generating<br>
capacity of 120, 000 MW (100 times Kenya's current capacity). From<br>
this Germany produced 566.9 billion kilowatt-hours (Bkwh) and consumed<br>
524.6 Bwkh of electric power. The largest share of this production (61<br>
percent) came from conventional thermal sources (burning own and<br>
imported coal), followed by nuclear (28 percent), and other renewables<br>
(7 percent from mainly wind). Germany has an active electricity trade<br>
with neighboring countries, though it is usually a net exporter,<br>
Germany’s electricity grid industry association reported that the<br>
country exported 34.5 Bkwh of electric power while importing 22.4<br>
Bkwh. Germany being an electricity secure country it can afford to<br>
export, it can shut down its nuclear power plants and remain<br>
sufficient, and it does not have a history of using emergency diesel<br>
generators to supply electricity to consumers! Kenya could also borrow<br>
from that nationalism aspect as emergency power enriches a few at the<br>
expense of multitudes!<br>
<br>
Ni hayo tuuu.<br>
<br>
Enjoy your Furahi day all.<br>
<div><div></div><div class="h5"><br>
Kind regards,<br>
<br>
David<br>
<br>
On 8/4/11, <a href="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a> <<a href="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>> wrote:<br>
> David,<br>
> Thank you. The following statement worries me:<br>
> Least Cost Power Development Plan which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to<br>
> have in excess of 18,000 MW.<br>
><br>
> There is no medium income country in the world that has less than 40,000<br>
> MW. If by 2030 we want to be a medium income country, we must aim at<br>
> 50,000. Just look at South Africa with 45,000 and still experiencing<br>
> power outages.<br>
><br>
><br>
> Regards<br>
><br>
><br>
> Ndemo.<br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
>> Dear Dr. Ndemo,<br>
>><br>
>>> 4. This energy thing is critical. The technology on Coal has greatly<br>
>>> improved that you can have clean coal. We must at least do 5,000 MW<br>
>>> from<br>
>>> this source for us to catch up. We also must step up geothermal to<br>
>>> fully<br>
>>> exploit the green energy available. In Northern Kenya we can use wind<br>
>>> energy since it is naturally available.<br>
>><br>
>> On the outset your plan to put 50% on agriculture and 40% on<br>
>> manufacturing is spot on.<br>
>><br>
>> My interest here is to enlighten you on energy, if you allow. Lets<br>
>> start with a story. 14 years ago while in Hungary I learnt that they<br>
>> generated more than 45% of their electricity from nuclear power plants<br>
>> and it was the duty of the government to install electricity in any<br>
>> habitable home (where human beings were living and residing in). For<br>
>> return and appreciation the citizen so provided with electricity paid<br>
>> per month an equivalent of a loaf of bread! If now less than kshs. 50.<br>
>><br>
>> That aside on the caption above. V2030 is a non starter without<br>
>> affordable, quality and sufficient electricity which currently<br>
>> constitutes wood fuel and other biomass accounting for about 68% of<br>
>> the total primary energy consumption followed by petroleum at 22%,<br>
>> electricity at 9% and others including coal at about less than 1%.<br>
>> Solar energy is extensively used for drying and to some extent for<br>
>> heating and lighting, the latter mainly by middle class Kenyans.<br>
>><br>
>> On electricity alone, we have the Least Cost Power Development Plan<br>
>> which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to have in excess of 18,000 MW of<br>
>> which nuclear share will be 4,000 MW. We have geothermal potential of<br>
>> 7,000 MW and hence assuming we step up its utilization from the<br>
>> current 210 MW we would still have a shortfall on the aim of<br>
>> generating 18,000 MW. Our coal may give us 2,000 MW. To increase we<br>
>> would have to import coal and hence aim having coal powered coal<br>
>> plants at the coast. Its true technologies for clean coal burning are<br>
>> available but the moment you apply them cost of electricity production<br>
>> goes higher and hence it (coal) loses its competitiveness against<br>
>> nuclear and burning oil. All countries on earth that have<br>
>> industrialized burnt gas, oil, coal and utilized nuclear for base load<br>
>> i.e. 24/7 all year round assured ,quality and sustained availability<br>
>> of electricity.<br>
>><br>
>> Wind, solar and hydro although cheaper in the short term they are not<br>
>> available throughout, and hence are not reliable for industrial needs<br>
>> (but they can go a long way in peaking arrangement i.e. taking the<br>
>> load off the grid when used in households, offices that are<br>
>> constructed in future enabling utilization of natural lighting and<br>
>> installing solar panels etc.).<br>
>><br>
>> Imagine a nuclear power plant at Isiolo (or there abouts). With cheap<br>
>> electricity one can pump water from Arthi and Tana river in the former<br>
>> North Eastern Province and irrigate land; produce from the farming<br>
>> would enable good health from eating well and setting of value<br>
>> addition industries meeting your aim of 50% on agriculture and 40% on<br>
>> manufacturing.\<br>
>><br>
>> Currently electrification rate in Kenya is 15% (47% in Nairobi and<br>
>> less than 2% in most rural Kenya), 50% in Cameroon and Nigeria, 65% in<br>
>> Ghana, 70% in South Africa, 98% in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria<br>
>> and Libya! We need to stop comparing our electrification rate with<br>
>> Somali, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi who are all below 15%!<br>
>><br>
>> Kind regards,<br>
>><br>
>> David<br>
>><br>
>><br>
>> On 8/4/11, <a href="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a> <<a href="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>> wrote:<br>
>>> Collins,<br>
>>> 1. We are in the same boat with strong winds. I am simply saying what<br>
>>> many people have said and we did not listen. In 1989 I made a proposal<br>
>>> to<br>
>>> the Kenya Government on how we could independent. The highlights of the<br>
>>> proposal was to focus on modernizing agriculture through mechanization<br>
>>> and<br>
>>> setting aside large tracks of land where we could take advantage of<br>
>>> economies of scale. I said our future food security would be in threat<br>
>>> due to climatic changes. I said that land sub division should be halted<br>
>>> and start rural urbanization to create land for agriculture. My thesis<br>
>>> then and now was that subsistence farming was undermining economic<br>
>>> growth.<br>
>>><br>
>>> In my report I likened our situation with Switzerland. Switzerland has<br>
>>> a<br>
>>> population of 8 million in an area of 15,940 square miles (size of<br>
>>> Central<br>
>>> Province of Kenya). From here they it feeds her population and sends<br>
>>> the<br>
>>> surplus to Africa. Further I said we were wasting a lot of money in<br>
>>> Tourism to entertain just a few people.<br>
>>><br>
>>> You can prove me right today but then I spent my entire holiday moving<br>
>>> from one office to another trying to explain what would be a problem in<br>
>>> my<br>
>>> country. Eventually I sat down with the then Director of Political<br>
>>> Affairs in the Ministry of Foreugn Affairs. He simply told me "young<br>
>>> man<br>
>>> you can go back to your USA here you are going to waste your time".<br>
>>><br>
>>> 2. We are all creative in a way and really thank you for supporting my<br>
>>> "candidacy".<br>
>>><br>
>>> 3. 50% on agriculture then 40% manufacturing. ICT does not need a lot<br>
>>> of<br>
>>> money to implement. On average most countries spend 6% of their annual<br>
>>> budget on ICTs.<br>
>>><br>
>>> 4. This energy thing is critical. The technology on Coal has greatly<br>
>>> improved that you can have clean coal. We must at least do 5,000 MW<br>
>>> from<br>
>>> this source for us to catch up. We also must step up geothermal to<br>
>>> fully<br>
>>> exploit the green energy available. In Northern Kenya we can use wind<br>
>>> energy since it is naturally available.<br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>> Regards<br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>> Ndemo.<br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>>> 1: Ill jump into this albeit late and begin with a reference to a<br>
>>>> scriptural<br>
>>>> parable of the talents in Matthew 25. The moral being that to whom much<br>
>>>> is<br>
>>>> given, much is expected and the converse being true. as a rhetorical<br>
>>>> question (you can answer if you like), have you made maximum use of the<br>
>>>> two<br>
>>>> talents you were given to deserve three in round two.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> 2: It is indeed a positive thing that you would even consider a Ndemo<br>
>>>> Tosha<br>
>>>> because in the bigger picture of things, it would be a definate<br>
>>>> improvement<br>
>>>> from the status quo. I like that you have Ideas and visions about what<br>
>>>> can<br>
>>>> be needed to solve what, ICT indeed might be the holy grail in<br>
>>>> improving<br>
>>>> process and equalizing a lot of the bumps that are exploited by<br>
>>>> uncreative<br>
>>>> Kenyans for profit.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> 3: Onto my questions: Between Agriculture, ICT, Infrastructure and<br>
>>>> Manufacturing, how would you allocate say theoretically a 1trillion<br>
>>>> budget<br>
>>>> (just for these) and what would be the justification for leaning to<br>
>>>> which.<br>
>>>> The devil would be in the details but a rough estimate would show<br>
>>>> direction.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>><br>
>>>> 4: Mention something about a) somalia, b) Southern sudan, c) EPAs and<br>
>>>> d)<br>
>>>> Kyoto viz a viz cheap energy.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> cheers...<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 11:31 AM, aki <<a href="mailto:aki275@gmail.com">aki275@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
>>>><br>
>>>>> Thank you Dr Ndemo for the comments.<br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>> I'd also like to add that govt policies and programs are the initial<br>
>>>>> catalyst drive because the private sector is what it is i.e. does not<br>
>>>>> fund<br>
>>>>> research or development ( not in Kenya ). And for many decades<br>
>>>>> economic<br>
>>>>> policies have placed favour over import versus local development, we<br>
>>>>> are<br>
>>>>> at<br>
>>>>> a stage today that it would probably takes us another 40-50 years to<br>
>>>>> even<br>
>>>>> design/produce the simplest semi-conductor available on the market<br>
>>>>> today.<br>
>>>>> The same design can be done at University levels in other countries.<br>
>>>>> We<br>
>>>>> are<br>
>>>>> really at a tough place because if we don't fast track with imports,<br>
>>>>> we<br>
>>>>> will<br>
>>>>> get left behind. And if we don't implement long term ways towards core<br>
>>>>> development, we are bound to become literally a "sales,marketing<br>
>>>>> and consultants" country which only has very short term benefits.<br>
>>>>> Today,<br>
>>>>> we<br>
>>>>> give the chance to external partners to help with technology needs and<br>
>>>>> systems, yet we are capable of creating or building upon these given<br>
>>>>> the<br>
>>>>> correct environment. It will be our biggest loss in future if we do<br>
>>>>> not<br>
>>>>> change course and take on the internal development segment with force<br>
>>>>> and<br>
>>>>> commitment. Just as the US identified itself as a major defense<br>
>>>>> exporter<br>
>>>>> economy thereby creating most of the advance<br>
>>>>> systems-engineers-mulit-million<br>
>>>>> dollar industries--highly educated employment, I think we also need to<br>
>>>>> define what we want to do and how to get there.<br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>> Starting at Sciences is really good, but would you kindly add what<br>
>>>>> esle<br>
>>>>> would be the catalysts towards creating and sustaining internal<br>
>>>>> development?<br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>> Thank you.<br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 10:43 AM, <<a href="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>> wrote:<br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>>> Aki,<br>
>>>>>> You now can understand why we need to stop business and general<br>
>>>>>> degree<br>
>>>>>> programmes. This is why we are more of traders than industrialists.<br>
>>>>>> I<br>
>>>>>> went to US for studies in the 1980's. In 1987 I was President of<br>
>>>>>> International Students at the University of Minnesota. We were 5,000<br>
>>>>>> foreign students in a student population of 120,000. The majority of<br>
>>>>>> students were from Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea. Of the<br>
>>>>>> Asian<br>
>>>>>> students, 98% were in engineering courses the remaider were in<br>
>>>>>> creative<br>
>>>>>> art degree program.<br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>> These countries became what we call Newly Industrialized Countries<br>
>>>>>> (NICs).<br>
>>>>>> In economic comparative terms, they were behind Kenya. Today we buy<br>
>>>>>> everything from them. They manufactured nothing then. Infact we<br>
>>>>>> used<br>
>>>>>> to<br>
>>>>>> love at the Hyundai Ponny that was first manufactured by Koreans.<br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>> We now must remove all fees for any student enrolled in science and<br>
>>>>>> creative degree programs. The rest can pay. When we started<br>
>>>>>> producing<br>
>>>>>> more computer graduates, we started seeing application development in<br>
>>>>>> Kenya to the extent that the world has started to recognize.<br>
>>>>>> Similarly,<br>
>>>>>> if we indeed want to industrialize, we must move to science. There<br>
>>>>>> are<br>
>>>>>> no<br>
>>>>>> options.<br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>> India has just realized this and they are taking jobs from<br>
>>>>>> overheating<br>
>>>>>> China. Our comparative advatange in this region is the human<br>
>>>>>> resource.<br>
>>>>>> Let us develop it, support it and guide it to the right direction.<br>
>>>>>> Regional influence is what will matter in the days to come. As such<br>
>>>>>> we<br>
>>>>>> must endeavor to see that Vision 2030 is realized in 2020. This is<br>
>>>>>> possible.<br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>> Regards<br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>> Ndemo.<br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>>><br>
>>>>><br>
>>>>> _______________________________________________<br>
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>>>>><br>
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>>>>><br>
>>>>> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder<br>
>>>>> platform<br>
>>>>> for<br>
>>>>> people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and<br>
>>>>> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the<br>
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>>>> --<br>
</div></div>>>>> *“The twentieth century has been characterized by three developments<br>
<div class="im">>>>> of<br>
>>>> great political importance: the growth of democracy, the growth of<br>
>>>> corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of<br>
</div>>>>> protecting corporate power against democracy�€ *<br>
<div><div></div><div class="h5">>>>><br>
>>>> ~ Alex Carey ~<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> Tel No: 0x2af23696<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> ----------------------------------------------<br>
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>>>><br>
>>>> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform<br>
>>>> for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and<br>
>>>> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT<br>
>>>> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and<br>
>>>> development.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors<br>
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>>><br>
>>> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform<br>
>>> for<br>
>>> people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and<br>
>>> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT<br>
>>> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and<br>
>>> development.<br>
>>><br>
>>> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors<br>
>>> online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and<br>
>>> bandwidth,<br>
>>> share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy,<br>
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>>> not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.<br>
>>><br>
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<br>
</div></div>--<br>
David Otwoma,<br>
Chief Science Secretary,<br>
National Council for Science and Technology,<br>
Utalii House 9th Floor,<br>
Mobile tel: +254 722 141771,<br>
Office tel: +254 (0)20 2346915,<br>
P. O. Box 5687 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya<br>
email: <a href="mailto:otwomad@gmail.com">otwomad@gmail.com</a> & <a href="mailto:otwoma@ncst.go.ke">otwoma@ncst.go.ke</a><br>
<a href="http://www.ncst.go.ke" target="_blank">www.ncst.go.ke</a><br>
<div><div></div><div class="h5"><br>
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The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.<br>
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</div></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div style="text-align:center"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px"><table style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;margin-top:5px" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<tbody><tr><td colspan="2" style="background-color:rgb(237, 241, 247);padding:5px"><font style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:rgb(0, 51, 153);text-decoration:none"><i>“The twentieth century has been characterized by three developments of great <b>political </b>importance: the growth of democracy, the growth of corporate <b>power</b>, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate <b>power</b> against democracy”</i></font></td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2"><p style="padding-top:3px">~ Alex Carey ~</p><p style="padding-top:3px">Tel No: 0x2af23696</p></td></tr></tbody></table></span></div><br>