[kictanet] [Skunkworks] the long fibre lie...Regulatory Action limited.

Tue Aug 18 11:08:04 EAT 2009

Hi all,

Fortunately Bill has a memory like an elephant, he never forgets anything!
LoL

Nevertheless - I still stand by my earlier statements. The price at which
TEAMS shareholders will offer bandwidth to the marketplace once they have
their end-to-end connectivity in place will be much lower than that of
SEACOM.

But back to the matter of bandwidth pricing and whether it was all a big lie
about prices to consumers coming down... Methinks that we are very impatient
if we expect pricing across the board to have dropped within less than a
month of 1 cable system having only 2 operators carrying bandwidth.

I would probably set the time when the price wars kick in with earnest at
somewhere around mid-January or even as early as November - if individual
TEAMs shareholders integration moves with speed.

Bill, since SEACOM delivered bandwidth to the marketplace - despite landing
*after* TEAMs - I will definitely uphold my offer of Kalovo. Will call you
to set the date and venue <grin>

Regards,

Brian

On Mon, Aug 17, 2009 at 7:57 PM, Bildad Kagai <billkagai at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> Walu,
> Placing this extract in the context of this discussion and your report on e-Governance
> we discussed 4 months ago...pg. 17....you forgot to include a fundamental
> issue.
>
>
> *Bill Kagai** doubted Brian's statement about the TEAMS project being
> “developmental” *
> *rather than “profit” oriented.  In his rejoinder **Brain Longwe** said
> that there were a *
> *number of different ways to go about major infrastructure development: *
>
> *
> *
> *1.** **For-Profit: Putting together a business case with a clear
> Return-On-Investment *
> *(ROI) benefit; looking out for funding, then building and deploying.
> Hopefully *
> *the market would respond well and the investors get their return (e.g.
> SEACOM). *
> *2.** **Means-to-an-end: Determine the total costs for the project,
> approach the primary *
> *stakeholders; Oil companies in the case of oil pipelines, gas companies
> in the case *
> *of gas companies, operators and ISPs in the case of bandwidth; sell them
> the *
> *concept of delivering the commodity to themselves at cost (or as near to
> cost as *
> *possible); set up an "Operations and Maintenance" structure which levies
> the *
> *same parties; build and deploy; once the bandwidth is delivered it's a
> "free-for-all" *
> *in the marketplace - with ‘costs’ at a very low level, prices would
> eventually *
> *follow due to competition (e.g. TEAMs and EASSY) *
>
> *
> *
> *He said this is was one of the main reasons why projects such as TEAMs
> and EASSY *
> *have faced stiff opposition, criticism and outright attempted sabotage –
> because they have *
> *the potential to cut the feet out from under any similar commercial
> venture. *
>
> *
> *
> *In response **Bill Kagai** stated the following *
>
> *
> *
> *1.** **For Profit - Seacom -This sounded like a brilliant business and
> economic model. *
> *2.** **Means-to-an-end - TEAMS:  Referencing his university economics
> this option *
> *appeared as the only economic model they did not teach at the University
> of *
> *Nairobi an institution established by an Act of Parliament. *
>
> *
> *
> *In summary, he felt that TEAMs had already waged a price war with no
> products in the *
> *market yet and was skeptical that TEAMs would indeed be cheaper than
> SEACOM in *
> *terms of costing internet service. *
>
> .....You forgot to include that Brian promised to buy me kalovo should
> Seacom roll out faster and end up being cheaper than Teams. Haki yetu..
>
>
> On Aug 17, 2009, at 1:10 PM, Walubengo J wrote:
>
> MO, Alex,
>
> Ease up abit.  Dont imagine I dont want affordable internet prices. Infact
> if you had time and googled my online contributions over the last 5years,
> you will realize I have been raising the red-flag about fiber vis a viz
> pricing.  The other day I reloaded my Safcom modem with 1,000/= (300MB
> service). It all disappeared within 5days! Previously before SEACOM it would
> take longer (3weeks) to disappear because of the slower speeds. Better
> speeds encourage  faster and broader browsing but  it hurts (financially)
> and its not funny.
>
> I think our differences lie in the approach to having reduced prices. I
> chose the academic route because thats my background.  Feel free to pursue
> your routes to reduced prices - but plse be cautious because the solution is
> NOT domiciled in ONE stakeholder. Its not with the Regulator, nor the
> techies, nor the activists, nor the Consumers, nor the Govt, nor the Media,
> etc.  Instead I believe it is with ALL of the above. And it will be
> unfortunate to alienate any of them while pursuing reduced prices.
>
> walu.
> nb1: and thats why I had copied to what Alex calls my "home-tuff" (just
> ropping in other stakeholders).
> nb2: I also note and do appreciated your legal counterarguments but decline
> to respond as at now since I will cover that and other issues during  the
> upcoming ICT conference at SU (I think will be free to sambaza the paper
> thereafter for those interested).
>
>
> --- On Mon, 8/17/09, mike oketch <mikeoketch at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> From: mike oketch <mikeoketch at gmail.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [Skunkworks] the long fibre lie...Regulatory Action limited.
>
> To: "Skunkworks forum" <skunkworks at lists.my.co.ke>
>
> Date: Monday, August 17, 2009, 10:13 AM
>
> Again
>
> Safaricom CEO who is also heads the board of
>
> TEAMS says that TEAMS benefits could not be realised because
>
> onward connection with Europe has not been fully discussed.
>
> How can you initiate a flight from Kenya to Nigeria without
>
> getting the landing rights in Nigeria and flight clearance
>
> for CAR, DRC, Sudan and all the countries you are going to
>
> overfly?
>
>
> Cheap Cheap Cheap and we wont be duped. I have
>
> seen people in this list who support the crooked CEOs just
>
> because they need favors for contracts and interviews for
>
> their educations research papers. Hypocrites they are.
>
>
> Lets be realistic
>
> MO
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 17, 2009 at 9:10 AM,
>
> mike oketch <mikeoketch at gmail.com>
>
> wrote:
>
>
> Walubengo
>
> Yours are just too simplistic than the
>
> Alex's you are saying that are simplistic. The fact that
>
> kenya could not regulate Oil prices doesnt mean that
>
> Tanzania couldnt. The fact that SAT 3 operators couldnt be
>
> regulated cannont mean that the operators here cannot be
>
> regulated.
>
>
>
> Stop all these fake comparisons. Prices must
>
> come down and we will face them at every conference and
>
> every Barcamp and will tell these unpatriotic who have
>
> pocketed our PS off. Your arguments just dont wash.
>
>
>
> MO
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 17, 2009 at 8:40 AM,
>
> Walubengo J <jwalu at yahoo.com>
>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> Alex,
>
>
>
>
> Your have rightly qaulified your solution - as simple.
>
> Indeed it is. Infact too simplistic to fly.  The idea
>
> that the Regulator can reign in Operators who charge
>
> "high" internet rates cannot and will not work.
>
> Think about the in-famous SAT3 fiber link on the west
>
> coast of africa.  Ask yourself why the Regulators in
>
> Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Angola, S-Africa etc have never
>
> stepped in and revoked licensces of operators over the
>
> last 15yrs of high internet costs offered on the fiber...
>
>
>
>
>
>
> The answers are very complex...I will actually be
>
> discussing these limitations and available interventions in
>
> some upcoming ICT conference at Strath University in Sept 09
>
> and I dont want to pre-empt ;-)....
>
>
>
>
> walu.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- On Fri, 8/14/09, Gakuru Alex <alexgakuru.lists at gmail.com>
>
> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> From: Gakuru Alex <alexgakuru.lists at gmail.com>
>
>
> Subject: Re: [Skunkworks] Fwd: the long fibre lie...
>
> Ndemo should resign if internet prices do not drop as he
>
> promised!!
>
>
> To: "Skunkworks forum" <skunkworks at lists.my.co.ke>
>
>
> Date: Friday, August 14, 2009, 8:44 PM
>
>
> On Fri, Aug 14, 2009 at 7:38 PM,
>
>
> David Kiania | Asentric Consulting
>
>
> Ltd<kianiadee at gmail.com>
>
>
> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> Set the precedence what's your  solution? Am
>
> sure if
>
>
> you did we'd have
>
>
> heard it by now. This thread is a knee jerk
>
> reaction
>
>
> to a bad internet
>
>
> day, we all have one.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Simple, the entity under Ndemo's docket that
>
> grants these
>
>
> cowboy
>
>
> operators licenses puts it's foot down and warn
>
> that I may
>
>
> revoke
>
>
> licenses for operators that charge waaaay up in the
>
> sky not
>
>
> just above
>
>
> cost but ABOVE acceptable international pricing
>
> benchmarks.
>
>
> They've
>
>
> all the data they need. Imagine, for example,
>
> Safaricom on
>
>
> the verge
>
>
> of losing their license, price drops, drops, drops,
>
> drops,
>
>
> drops, and
>
>
> drops..... across board.
>
>
>
>
> Would this be acceptable to you?
>
>
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-- 
Brian Munyao Longwe
e-mail: blongwe at gmail.com
cell:  + 254 722 518 744
blog : http://zinjlog.blogspot.com
meta-blog: http://mashilingi.blogspot.com
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