[Kictanet] [Fibre-for-africa] Whats i have being talking of as a public private partnership in ownership of the critical infrastructur
Eric Osiakwan
eric at afrispa.org
Tue Nov 28 11:45:17 EAT 2006
Dear All,
In my rush to attend to some emergency yesterday i did not read over
so ended up with french (not good enough french for Bill to
read.....:-) instead of english so please allow me to come again.
Also this is being monitored on the KICTANET list so i have made an
extension to them as well as to the AfrISPA list on which this is
taking space.
Anriette,
The principle is the same however since EASSy was spanning multiple
jurisdictions, it waranted multiple platforms for the stock market
activity but the Kenyan one (TEAMS) is a single domain so in my mind
the question should be "would it make sense for it to trade on one
exchange or the multiple approach would generate much scale in terms
of the financial lifting that is expected and the activities
thereoff?" In someway Brian seems to suggest a multiple approach but
i have a knowledge deficit of the East African Stock markets co-
operatin and how this may work. Am aware that SWOPNET in Tanzania is
similar to KICTANET and iNETWORK in Uganda also has the same
semblance so if KICTANET liases with those camps we could get some
country info on the dynamics at play or someone from the lists could
feed us with some knowledge (at least am interested in knowing.....:-)
YES, it looks like a race (NOT A RAT RACE...:-) but the precedent of
very low cost bandwidth and non-discriminatory practise must be a
guiding light.
Eric here
NB: Bill, thanks for the heads up. For those who are seeing this for
the first time, below is MY french version of the english rendition
above so if you dont understand the french dont worry, just stick to
the english and you would not have missed anything at all.....:-)
On 27 Nov 2006, at 20:06, Eric M.K Osiakwan wrote:
> Anriette,
>
> The principle is the same however since EASSy was spanning multiple
> jurisdictions then it warantted multiple platforms for the stock
> market activity but the Kenyan one is a single domain so in my mind
> should be that would is make sense for it to trade on one exchange
> or the multiple approach would generate much scale in terms of the
> financial lifting the expected activities?
>
> YES, it looks like arade but the precedent of very low cost and non-
> discriminatory practise must be a guiding light.
>
> Eric here
>
>
> On 27 Nov 2006, at 22:19, Anriette Esterhuysen wrote:
>
>> Dear Eric
>>
>> A group of us APC people actually discussed your idea quite
>> intensively a
>> while ago.
>>
>> The one difference between what is happening here, and what you
>> propose,
>> is that the Kenyan initiative will involve only one stock
>> exchange.... so, if the
>> IPO continues, it will be listed in Kenya... as far as I know.
>>
>> Your proposal would have involved the 'entity' listing on multiple
>> stock
>> exchanges.... that would have been much more complicated.
>>
>> Seeing these new financial models emerge is very interesting. And
>> it does
>> feel a bit like a race... whose cable will light up first? Who
>> will sell the
>> cheapest bandwidth? Any bets?
>>
>> Anriette
>>
>>
>>> Folks,
>>>
>>> Below is exactly what i have being chanting as a way forward in the
>>> ownership of the infrastructure; The Kenya Government will have a 40
>>> per cent holding in the project, Etisalat 20% and the remaining 40%
>>> will go to investors in the East African region. The Government has
>>> said it will organise an IPO on the Kenyan Stock Exchange. Several
>>> Kenyan companies have expressed interest and one said that the
>>> Government had told them it would "guarantee their loan". The
>>> details of the finance package have not yet been settled but it is
>>> unclear where the Kenyan Government will raise its 40% from. Will
>>> the
>>> World Bank simply shift a portion of its EASSy funding to the new
>>> project as many think likely?
>>>
>>> NB; From this week's Balancing Act, full story below for your
>>> pleasure.
>>>
>>> Thank God the Kenya are experimenting with this approach where
>>> government owns part, private sector owns part, educational
>>> institutions should also own part, CSO owns part through IPO on the
>>> stock market.
>>>
>>> The Kenya government can actually raise the 40% from government
>>> bonds
>>> and am not an expert on the stock market discipline of shares or
>>> bonds but this is where the financial experts need to come out with
>>> innovative solutions that can help raise much of this money locally
>>> and it is possible.
>>>
>>> In the attached paper which is an output of the great work Rahul
>>> Tongia did with some colleagues and little input from me, it is
>>> clear
>>> that we could actually wire Africa up with fiber to the most
>>> population densed centres for a billion dollars whcih means if every
>>> African put a dollar on the table we could wire Africa up with fiber
>>> and 50 percent of that dark fiber already exist - what does that
>>> mean
>>> to you as an African?
>>>
>>>
>>> You Kenyans are showing the way and even it it does not work you
>>> would be know for showing us how this model is not workable and then
>>> we can try another. We Africans must try new ways of doing these
>>> things and make our own mistakes and find our own solutions to our
>>> problems but learn to avoid the mistakes of the Americans, Europeans
>>> and Asians. Thank God for this BOLD move, it is commendable.
>>>
>>>
>>> TOP STORY: KENYA BEGINS THE COUNTDOWN TO CHEAP INTERNATIONAL FIBRE
>>> ____________________________________________________________________
>>> _
>>>
>>> It´s like waiting for a matatu. You wait for ages and none come
>>> along. But just when you´re about to give up hope, three come along
>>> at the same time, all trying to come to a screaming halt in front of
>>> you. Kenya now has three (or more) potential international fibre
>>> projects that could be complete within 12 months. Each one is loudly
>>> proclaiming that it will deliver cheap international bandwidth.
>>> Russell Southwood took the temperature in the market last week about
>>> what the impact of this bandwidth will be upon the market.
>>>
>>> The Kenya Government has signed an MOU to build a fibre link to
>>> Fujairah
>>> in the UAE currently costed at Ksh5.7 billion. The construction and
>>> supply contract will be awarded early next year and the project,
>>> dubbed The East African Marine System (Teams), will be ready by
>>> November, according to a joint statement issued by both parties from
>>> Dubai. Many in the sector believe that it will be more like 19
>>> months
>>> or more before completion.
>>>
>>> The Kenya Government will have a 40 per cent holding in the project,
>>> Etisalat 20% and the remaining 40% will go to investors in the East
>>> African region. The Government has said it will organise an IPO
>>> on the
>>> Kenyan Stock Exchange. Several Kenyan companies have expressed
>>> interest and one said that the Government had told them it would
>>> "guarantee their loan". The details of the finance package have
>>> not yet been settled but it is unclear where the Kenyan Government
>>> will raise its 40% from. Will the World Bank simply shift a
>>> portion of
>>> its EASSy funding to the new project as many think likely?
>>>
>>> The Government´s commitment to a 12 month schedule is a bold move
>>> but one that must lay them open to a certain amount of
>>> scepticism. The
>>> tender for expressions of interest was only issued 2 weeks ago and
>>> Government timetabling is notoriously slow compared to the private
>>> sector. Apparently the Private Secretary has been telling interested
>>> parties that the Government wants prices comparable to those to be
>>> found in India in 12 months time. This benchmark has been set in
>>> order
>>> that Kenya will be able to compete in the international outsourcing
>>> market.
>>>
>>> Apparently a number of interested parties said that they would
>>> put up
>>> all the money to build it if they could have a monopoly and he sent
>>> them away disappointed. But more worryingly one interested party
>>> told
>>> us that it could only get involved if it also allowed Telkom
>>> Kenya to
>>> be a shareholder.
>>>
>>> The next international fibre project is KDN´s and it has now signed
>>> its contract with Flag Telecom. Its link from Mombasa will terminate
>>> in an undersea junction in international waters off of the Yemen. It
>>> says the link will be fully operational in the first quarter of
>>> 2008,
>>> just 15 months away. The company believes that it will come to
>>> market
>>> with capacity at $500 per mbps pm but that the price of bandwidth
>>> will
>>> go up to those wanting to invest as time passes. In other words, for
>>> those who commit early prices will be lowest and for those who
>>> come in
>>> late, prices will go higher. It also stresses that its landing
>>> station
>>> at Mombasa will allow other carriers to co-locate there charging
>>> only
>>> electricity and services at cost.
>>>
>>> So this leaves the third project EASSy looking as if it will be the
>>> third runner. NEPAD appears to have made little more progress on
>>> persuading more African Governments to sign its political protocol.
>>> And whilst the members of the EASSy consortium (that still includes
>>> KDN and Telkom Kenya) are still moving things forward, there
>>> remains a
>>> disconnect between the political and commercial ends of the project.
>>> If both of the above projects go ahead, there is clearly much less
>>> need to build the Mombasa-Djibouti section of the route and it
>>> has to
>>> be said that both of the above projects have better international
>>> connection points.
>>>
>>> As if three were not enough, Ethiopia´s ETC has now had its
>>> international fibre connection working effectively for two months
>>> via
>>> Port Sudan and Saudi Arabia. But because it is landlocked and it had
>>> endless fruitless arguments with Djibouti Telecom over control of a
>>> possible fibre link, it wants to find a second international fibre
>>> connection. Therefore it is in serious conversations with both of
>>> Kenya´s fibre network operators about connecting to the Mombasa
>>> links when they are ready. If this goes ahead, both it and Kenya
>>> will
>>> then have two international fibre links.
>>>
>>> Because the process of getting the international fibre to Kenya has
>>> been both confusing and "on-off", everyone in the market
>>> (including customers) have understandably not really grasped the
>>> impact of its arrival on their businesses. Until now ISPs and
>>> satellite resellers have largely been in the businesses of living on
>>> the margin they make between buying and selling bandwidth.
>>>
>>> These margins have been kept high as they have concentrated on
>>> selling
>>> to comparatively few customers. Ironically it has been a high-price,
>>> low volume business where their primary commodity - bandwidth -
>>> has always been in short supply, not least because some of them
>>> increased their margin by contending it as much as possible. This
>>> has
>>> meant that bandwidth quality is often variable at best for those not
>>> paying "top dollar" for a premium service.
>>>
>>> If you argue that international fibre prices should be low price,
>>> high
>>> volume, then the national business model changes: what´s sauce for
>>> the goose is sauce for the gander. Bandwidth becomes cheap and
>>> plentiful at a sub $1000 threshold. The margins that can then be
>>> charged make it difficult for those who are not operating at
>>> volume to
>>> stay in business.
>>>
>>> However it does now open up opportunities for new services, content
>>> and applications that can be sold to customers who should now be
>>> paying European prices for real broadband connections (1-2 meg
>>> upwards) rather than the paltry 64 kbps they are currently
>>> receiving.
>>> There are at least 500,000 households in Kenya that are at an income
>>> level that make them potential targets for broadband. It would take
>>> only half of those households to sign up for there to be the
>>> beginnings of a very different market.
>>>
>>> The real sign that the market has not "got it" is that some key
>>> ISPs are not passing on the information about these soon-to-be cheap
>>> prices but are seeking to protect their high margins by telling
>>> customers higher prices. A heads-up, guys. The sector is a
>>> village and
>>> news will get round quickly and we´ll encourage the circulation of
>>> this price information. The market´s about to change, get ready to
>>> change with it.
>>>
>>> At the national level, there is now a third source of fibre
>>> capacity.
>>> Jamii Telecommunications has signed an agreement with the Kenya
>>> Light
>>> and Power Company (KPLC) to sell an STM1´s worth of its fibre
>>> capacity in Nairobi and Mombasa, with KPLC saying that it will
>>> triple
>>> its capacity shortly. Two other companies - CTN and Cable Vision -
>>> have been granted a licence to sell KPLC´s capacity and it is
>>> telling (in terms of the argument above) that both are in the video
>>> download and pay-TV business. Not so far afield, Tanzanian power
>>> utility TANESCO is currently building out fibre capacity and has
>>> invited bids to sell this capacity. Again KDN is poised to make a
>>> fibre connection to Tanzania.
>>>
>>> However a recent ping on the Kampala-Nairobi route shows that
>>> neither
>>> KDN nor Telkom Kenya has got its fibre route operational. KDN is
>>> promising it will be operational by the end of first quarter 2007
>>> and
>>> that prices will be 20% cheaper.
>>>
>>> Elsewhere in the market, the new VoIP operators are finding it
>>> difficult
>>> to get interconnection agreements and to get proper service from
>>> interconnect service providers. Telkom Kenya is charging absurdly
>>> high
>>> prices but has at least reached interconnect agreements.
>>> Nevertheless
>>> the new fixed wireless operators - Flashcom and Popote - are
>>> having difficulties: customers are unable to receive or make
>>> calls to
>>> certain countries. Apparently anyone who calls a customer number of
>>> these fixed wireless operators from Germany gets a number
>>> unobtainable.
>>>
>>> Access Kenya´s Yello VoIP service has been aimed at corporates and
>>> has attracted 250 customers who generate 120,000 minutes a month.
>>> But
>>> it has had difficulty getting interconnection agreements with the
>>> mobile operators. It made a complaint to regulator CCK in April and
>>> became so frustrated that it said it would run an advertisement
>>> publicising the position. Safaricom came back to the table but
>>> Celtel
>>> refuses to enter discussions, saying that it will do so in its own
>>> time.
>>>
>>> Kenyan ISPs are under heavy pressure from all the new operators.
>>> Flashcom and Popote are taking more money from data than voice at
>>> the
>>> moment as customers are primarily signing up for cheaper Internet
>>> access. Also the introduction of EDGE services by Safaricom is
>>> eating
>>> into their high-end customers: one ISP´s CEO admitted privately that
>>> he was losing hundreds of customers a month to these new
>>> competitors.
>>> The challenge for everyone in the market will be whether they can
>>> take
>>> the soon-to-arrive cheaper international bandwidth and use it to
>>> transform the market.
>>>
>>>
>>> Eric M.K Osiakwan
>>> Executive Secretary
>>> AfrISPA (www.afrispa.org)
>>> Tel: + 233.21.258800
>>> Fax: + 233.21.258811
>>> Cell: + 233.244.386792
>>> Handle: eosiakwan
>>> Snail Mail: Pmb 208, Accra-North
>>> Office: BusyInternet - 42 Ring Road Central, Accra-North
>>> Blog: http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/eric/
>>> Slang: "Tomorrow Now"
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------
>> Anriette Esterhuysen, Executive Director
>> Association for Progressive Communications
>> anriette at apc.org
>> http://www.apc.org
>> PO Box 29755, Melville, South Africa. 2109
>> Tel. 27 11 726 1692
>> Fax 27 11 726 1692
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Fibre-for-africa mailing list
>> Fibre-for-africa at lists.apc.org
>> http://lists.apc.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/fibre-for-africa
>>
>
> Eric M.K Osiakwan
> ICT Consultant and Journalist
> Tel: + 233.21.258800
> Fax: + 233.21.258811
> Cell: + 233.244.386792
> Handle: eosiakwan
> Snail Mail: Pmb 208, Accra-North
> Office: BusyInternet - 42 Ring Road Central, Accra-North
> Blog: http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/eric/
> Slang: "Tomorrow Now"
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Fibre-for-africa mailing list
> Fibre-for-africa at lists.apc.org
> http://lists.apc.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/fibre-for-africa
Eric M.K Osiakwan
Executive Secretary
AfrISPA (www.afrispa.org)
Tel: + 233.21.258800
Fax: + 233.21.258811
Cell: + 233.244.386792
Handle: eosiakwan
Snail Mail: Pmb 208, Accra-North
Office: BusyInternet - 42 Ring Road Central, Accra-North
Blog: http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/eric/
Slang: "Tomorrow Now"
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