<html><head></head><body><div class="ydpd96486d9yahoo-style-wrap" style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:16px;"><div id="ydpd96486d9yiv3608135184"><div><div class="ydpd96486d9yiv3608135184ydpbe3afb7cyahoo-style-wrap" style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:16px;"> <div><div>For those who haven't watched it (see link #4 below), the video
posted by Mr. Muraya supports the idea of a rail system like SGR and
discusses how past US administrations' mistake of pandering to corporate
interests (like car manufacturers, road contractors and petroleum
barons) led to sub-optimal infrastructural decisions which will be very
costly to undo, if at all possible, and which inadvertently created a
niche for other countries, like China, to establish technological
leadership in Rail innovations, that is now being used for geopolitical
advantage against US interests. <br></div><div><br></div><div>This is an
excellent case study of how short-term oriented corporate lobbyists
push for policies that sabotage governments and public interest in the
long term. It also makes an interesting point: that high quality public
infrastructure decisions are best driven by public interest and long
term strategic planning (i.e. master-plan design instead of a haphazard
"lets please the deepest pockets" approach). <br></div><div><br></div><div>The
politics around our SGR makes it a tricky and sensitive topic. It is
very difficult to have a sober debate on such topics because positions
are so deeply entrenched and heavily reliant on deep personal
convictions (rather than rational thought or evidence), as well as
undisclosed political motivations, that it sometimes looks like a
religious debate. <br></div><div><br></div><div>A key sign of entrenched
positions is when sweeping statements are articulated as absolute and
irrefutable "truths", applicable to ALL scenarios, no matter what, often
with no supporting evidence or data, but even when confirming evidence
or data exists, there is little if any interest in looking for, or
entertaining, contradictory evidence or data. You can't establish an
"absolute truth" by inductive reasoning (see links #1 & #2 below).<br></div><div><br></div><div>No
wonder at the end of every debate on such hot topics, each side becomes
more entrenched in their previous beliefs and absolutely <u>no learning takes place</u>,
because in reality, it is not the issue itself being debated or
defended, but the normative (right/wrong/good/bad) connotations around
the issue - which significantly raises the personal stakes among
participants leading to a natural defensive reaction. There are
scientific explanations for this i.e. <span>cognitive dissonance</span> and<span> <span>confirmation
bias - so irrational positions are not just about "tribe" or political
affiliations but how our brains are fundamentally wired to operate when
we are in real/perceived groups</span></span>. (see link #3 below)<br></div><div><br></div><div><div>Even
as I write this, I can't help but feel like a fly walking into the
spider's den... Still, let me muster some courage and try tiptoe around
the political minefield, so as to offer an intellectual perspective to
those who may be receptive to a rational discussion on the topic of
investment appraisal for <span>public infrastructure</span>.<br></div></div><div> <br></div><div>To
begin, two interesting phrases have been made by fellow listers, which I
think are not as congruent as they may appear. The phrase "ahead of
demand" makes more sense to me than "not really supposed to break even".
The former considers or recognizes the question of demand. The latter
dispenses with it completely.</div><div><br></div><div>I believe that <span>SGR is an "ahead of demand" project that makes a lot of sense - <span>just like Thika Superhighway and the various city bypass roads. <br></span></span></div><div><span><span><br></span></span></div><div><span><span><span>The
government is just not articulating its position well because it
seemingly does not
have a technocratic communication team (or Think Tank) that can engage ,
non-politically, with opposing intellectuals to offer robust rebuttals
to (real/purported) intellectual arguments, whilst educating the public
on complexities and nuances around
public interest projects. </span>This failure to offer a robust
articulation of net gains has a negative impact on trust - which creates
room for toxic politics (propaganda).<br></span></span></div><div><span><span><br></span></span></div><div><span><span>SGR
is a component of a continent-wide master-plan. If you consider
developments like AfCFTA and continent-wide infrastructure projects, the
SGR starts to make a lot of sense. Most arguments against it try to
limit the scope of benefit to tangible aspects (direct revenue) strictly
within the local context - but holistic business cases will also
consider the intangible benefits (e.g. opening up the economy for MSMEs)
as well as broader contexts (e.g. AfCFTA<span><span><span>, strategic geopolitical gains etc</span></span></span>). <br></span></span></div><div><span><span><br></span></span></div><div><span><span>So
the business case for SGR (and it's payback period) largely depends the
methodology and inputs used to calculate it - and this is why it is so
vulnerable to politics. Sadly, Wanjiku doesn't know this - and
Government has, so far, been doing a poor job of articulating it (as
well as losing out of the benefits of teaching citizens how to think
critically and independently - such as, lowering susceptibility of
general population to geopolitical subversion.</span></span> But these weaknesses can be addressed at any time by the relevant decision makers, if they wish to do so.<br></div><div> <br></div><div>Is
it pedantic to examine the difference between "ahead of demand" vs "not
really supposed to break even"? Well, if you believe resources are
unlimited, that any debt is better than smart debt, and that there are
no competing alternatives where allocation of capital would yield better
returns, then, yes, you will assert pedantry. <br></div><div><br></div><div>But
if you take the view that resources are indeed scarce, that we are a
poor country that relies on debt to provide even basic services like
healthcare and/or education for our children, that we need to accumulate
smart debt - not any debt, and you recognize the need to strike a
balance between immediate needs (economic pain relief) and long term
gains, you will see value in considering the demand-side and a culture
that strives to focus on projects that have a clear and high value
proposition for the country (the SGR being one of them, IMO). </div><div><br></div><div><div><div>Perhaps Isiolo Airport would be an example of Ali's "not really
supposed to break even" project, if recent media reports are anything to
go by (see link #5). I don't have data to make any definitive conclusions on it as yet so I reserve my opinion.<br></div><div><br></div>In
order to establish a robust counter-narrative to that posed by
economists and intellectuals (so that Wanjiku doesn't fall for
intellectual dishonesty) the government should consider setting up
"think tank" agencies or workgroups, in collaboration with
entrepreneurs, TVETs and Universities, to offer intellectually robust
thought leadership on national discourse; taking in the good ideas and
offering robust counter-narratives to politically motivated intellectual
arguments.</div></div><div><br></div><div>We need a culture of
low-stakes debate, where we people can talk to each other about
things/perspectives that we disagree on, with the goal of educating
ourselves as curious individuals, and as a collective that desires to
make the right choices for our, and our children's long term benefit.</div><div><br></div><div>Good evening. <br></div><div><br></div><div>Links / References:</div><div><br></div><div>1. The Problem of Induction <br></div><div><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" class="">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_induction</a></div><div><br></div><div>2. Deeper discussion on Inductive reasoning<br></div><div><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inductive_reasoning" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inductive_reasoning</a></div><div><br></div><div>3. <span>Confirmation Bias And the Power of Disconfirming Evidence</span><br></div> <div><a href="https://fs.blog/2017/05/confirmation-bias/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://fs.blog/2017/05/confirmation-bias/</a></div><div><br></div><div>4. CNBC Report - <span>Why The US Has No High-Speed Rail</span><br></div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qaf6baEu0_w" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qaf6baEu0_w</a></div><div><br></div>5. <span><a href="https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/shipping/Isiolo-Airport-mostly-idle-despite-Sh2-7bn-upgrade/4003122-5104960-mwawtm/index.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/shipping/Isiolo-Airport-mostly-idle-despite-Sh2-7bn-upgrade/4003122-5104960-mwawtm/index.html</a></span><div><br></div><div>Brgds,</div><div>Patrick.</div><div><br></div>Patrick A. M. </div><br><div><div><div><br clear="none"></div><div><br clear="none"></div><div><br clear="none"></div><div><br clear="none"> </div></div><br clear="none"></div><br clear="none"><div><br clear="none"></div><br clear="none"><div><br clear="none"></div>
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On Friday, May 10, 2019, 8:54:24 PM GMT+3, Eng. Dr. Zaipuna O. Yonah via kictanet <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:
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<div><div id="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303"><div><div>I concur! I consider Infrastructure projects as investments AHEAD of demand, not where there is demand.<div><br clear="none"></div><div>Regards</div><div>Zaipuna</div></div><br clear="none"><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_quote"><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303yqt6472935566" id="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303yqt43771"><div dir="ltr">On Fri, 10 May 2019, 19:16 Ali Hussein via kictanet <<a shape="rect" href="mailto:kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a> wrote:<br clear="none"></div><blockquote class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia, serif;">Interesting take.</div><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><br clear="none"></div><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia, serif;">Just one thing. Infrastructure projects are not really supposed to break even. This is not a Profit and Loss situation. The ramifications of great infrastructure supersede the profit motive. </div><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><br clear="none"></div><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia, serif;">Regards</div><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><br clear="none"></div><div><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303m_-1626243398898328555gmail_signature" dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><b><font size="2" face="georgia, serif">Ali
Hussein</font></b></p><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><b><font size="2" face="georgia, serif">Principal</font></b></p><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><font size="2" face="georgia, serif"><b>AHK & Associates</b></font></p><font size="2">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><font size="2"> </font></p><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><font size="2"><span style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><span>T<font size="2">el: +254 713 60<font size="2">1113</font></font><br clear="none"></span></span></font></p><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><font size="2"><span style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><span>Twitter: @AliHKassim</span><span></span></span></font></p><font size="2"><span style="font-family:georgia, serif;">
</span></font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><font size="2"><span style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><span>Skype: abu-jomo</span></span></font></p><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><font size="2"><span style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><span>LinkedIn: <a shape="rect" href="http://ke.linkedin.com/in/alihkassim" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://ke.linkedin.com/in/alihkassim</a></span><a shape="rect" href="http://ke.linkedin.com/in/alihkassim" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;"></span></a></span></font></p><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt;"><font size="2"><span style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><br clear="none"></span></font></p><p style="font-size:small;margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size:9pt;font-family:georgia;color:black;">13th Floor , Delta Towers, Oracle Wing,</span><span style="font-size:9.5pt;font-family:arial;"></span></p><p style="font-size:small;margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size:9pt;font-family:georgia;color:black;">Chiromo Road, Westlands,</span><span style="font-size:9.5pt;font-family:arial;"></span></p><p style="font-size:small;margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size:9pt;font-family:georgia;color:black;">Nairobi, Kenya.</span></p><font size="2"><span style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><span><br clear="none"><font size="1">Any information of a personal nature expressed in this email are purely mine and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the organizations that I work with.</font></span></span></font><span></span><span style="font-size:11pt;"></span>
<span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br clear="none"><img src="https://t.sidekickopen07.com/s1t/o/5/f18dQhb0S7ks8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9gXrN7sKj6v4LNdFMd_KMKRbM7xW4Wzv6P2zlZNzW26tGP91k1H6H0?si=6190904865718272&pi=c0becd1e-659c-4e8b-8858-16f805dccd7c&ti=null" style="display:none !important;width:1px;max-width:1px;" data-inlineimagemanipulating="true" draggable="false" class="" data-id="1557529692675"></div><br clear="none"><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_quote"><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_attr" dir="ltr">On Fri, May 10, 2019 at 11:20 AM S.M. Muraya via kictanet <<a shape="rect" href="mailto:kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a>> wrote:<br clear="none"></div><blockquote class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yiv1559650303gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex;"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>Interesting documentary here..</div><div>Why The US Has No High-Speed Rail - <a shape="rect" href="https://youtu.be/Qaf6baEu0_w" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/Qaf6baEu0_w</a></div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>Even with digital transformations, the USA is still creating (service industry jobs) which require movement of people + cargo, not just movement of money (online banking services).<br clear="none"></div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>MAYBE, the KE SGR will break even in 30 years (serving over 90 Mln Kenyans) if Kenyan SMEs are empowered to create more jobs all over Kenya. <br clear="none"></div><div dir="ltr"><div><br clear="none"></div><div><a shape="rect" href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/demographic-transition-growth-kenya" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/demographic-transition-growth-kenya</a> </div><div> <br clear="none"></div><div><div><a shape="rect" href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/kenya-population/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">worldpopulationreview.com/countries/kenya-population/</a></div></div><div><br clear="none"></div></div></div></div>
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</blockquote></div></div></div></div><div class="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yqt6472935566" id="ydp9562579eyiv3608135184ydp76282c52yqt03284">_______________________________________________<br clear="none">kictanet mailing list<br clear="none"><a shape="rect" href="mailto:kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a><br clear="none"><a shape="rect" href="https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet</a><br clear="none">Twitter: <a shape="rect" href="http://twitter.com/kictanet" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://twitter.com/kictanet</a><br clear="none">Facebook: <a shape="rect" href="https://www.facebook.com/KICTANet/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/KICTANet/</a><br clear="none"><br clear="none">Unsubscribe or change your options at <a shape="rect" href="https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/pmaina2000%40yahoo.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/pmaina2000%40yahoo.com</a><br clear="none"><br clear="none">The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.<br clear="none"></div></div></div></body></html>