<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" ><tr><td valign="top" style="font: inherit;">@ Barrack/GG,<br><br>Sorry, been offline a bit and just reviewing most posts now...jst on some points of order.<br>Which Day and Theme are we on as @ now? Or is it open ended?<br>How many Days and Themes remaining?<br>Can we revisit old themes?<br><br>regards.<br><br>walu.<br><br><br>--- On <b>Fri, 8/5/11, bitange@jambo.co.ke <i><bitange@jambo.co.ke></i></b> wrote:<br><blockquote style="border-left: 2px solid rgb(16, 16, 255); margin-left: 5px; padding-left: 5px;"><br>From: bitange@jambo.co.ke <bitange@jambo.co.ke><br>Subject: Re: [kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving KnowledgeEconomy?OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo<br>To: jwalu@yahoo.com<br>Cc: "KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions" <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke><br>Date: Friday, August 5, 2011, 5:42 PM<br><br><div class="plainMail">David,<br>Please ask the Planner to watch the movie
"Field of Dreams" Earl Jones said "Build it, they will come". In Kenya electricity is only accessible to 15% of the population. This means there is bent up demand that is usually factored in predictive models.<br><br>There in no single predictive model that can give you a perfect trajectory. I am sure he will agree with me that there is not one single middle income country that has below 40,000 MW. Trust me in this. I pray that God gives us good life to see what I saying.<br><br><br>Ndemo.<br><br>Sent from my BlackBerry®<br><br>-----Original Message-----<br>From: David Otwoma <<a ymailto="mailto:otwomad@gmail.com" href="/mc/compose?to=otwomad@gmail.com">otwomad@gmail.com</a>><br>Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2011 15:40:54 <br>To: <<a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>><br>Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<<a
ymailto="mailto:kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a>><br>Subject: Re: [kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving Knowledge<br> Economy?OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo<br><br>Dear Dr. Ndemo,<br><br>One of my Energy Planners has the below lines to say as concerns your post....<br><br>First I wish to agree with him that the current reserve capacity is<br>inadequate. I did an analysis recently covering Jan-Jun 2011 and<br>concluded that we require 42% reserve capacity to take care of planned<br>and unplanned outages, and also the hydro risks especially now that<br>the droughts are recurrent and yet our power systems is over 50%<br>hydro. I also support the need to avail capacity ahead of demand in<br>order to encourage investments.<br><br>I however beg to differ on the issue of demand forecasting models. We<br>have consistently produced credible projections and
proposed<br>additional generation projects in our least cost plan over the last<br>decade. For instance the latest LCPDP has a higher projection for this<br>year than the current actual demand. The current peak is 1194MW<br>recorded in May 2011 while the projected peak for 2010/11 was 1302MW,<br>and the reserve capacity in the LCPDP for the medium term is about<br>33%. Our forecast demand for 2030 is 15,000MW while the installed<br>capacity will be over 19,000MW. High reserve capacity has a cost and<br>should be traded after interconnection with other countries in the<br>region to avoid passing the high cost to consumers, otherwise it would<br>have to be developed and paid for by Government. The most important<br>task for now is to implement recommended power generation projects,<br>regardless of the forecasting tool we use. We should also strive to<br>climate-proof our system.<br><br>In terms of planners, I think we have good capacity and
suitable tools<br>for the work, and we shall continue to enhance our capacity.<br><br>.........There you have it from our own home grown expert.<br><br>My closing remarks in support of my planner is that Energy Planning is<br>not the same as predicting the future but it aims to analyze different<br>futures. Since no analysis is perfect we need to reasonably introduce<br>many more “what if” questions that we should explore. When new<br>information is availed previously plausible assumption would no longer<br>stand the test of time.....and hence Energy Planning never ends…..<br><br>Kind regards na pole kwa msiba.<br><br>David<br><br>On 8/5/11, <a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a> <<a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>> wrote:<br>> David,<br>> Let us discard the current models of projecting energy
needs. This is<br>> because of several exogeneous variables that are not taken into<br>> consideration.<br>><br>> For example, tier 4 data center energy requirement is 50 MW. We are bulding<br>> more than 10 in the next few years. Some three years ago I said we needed<br>> double current capacity then but my request was dismissed as a dream. By<br>> 2015 we need at lest 5,000 MW if we implement the industrialization plan.<br>><br>> For serious investors to consider Kenya as an investment destination, we<br>> must be having at least 50% excess capacity. You have seen what happens<br>> when we operate at less than 10% excess capacity.<br>><br>> These are facts. We must get down to seriously addressing this problem.<br>><br>> Ndemo.<br>><br>><br>> Sent from my BlackBerry®<br>><br>> -----Original Message-----<br>> From: David Otwoma <<a
ymailto="mailto:otwomad@gmail.com" href="/mc/compose?to=otwomad@gmail.com">otwomad@gmail.com</a>><br>> Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2011 11:45:35<br>> To: <<a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>><br>> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<<a ymailto="mailto:kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a>><br>> Subject: Re: [kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving Knowledge Economy?<br>> OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo<br>><br>> Dear Dr. Ndemo,<br>><br>> It is true the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) of 2011 t0<br>> 2031 aims at above 18,000 MW generation capacity, the 2010 to 2030 had<br>> less than 18,000 MW, while that of 2009 to 2029 was below 15,000 MW.<br>> This (2011-2031) was the 4th LCPDP and preparations for the next (2012<br>> to 2032) is underway. It has
room for upward projections as we are now<br>> aware that while GDP may grow at 5%, growth for electricity supply<br>> should be 8% (conservative i.e. KenGen figures) to 12% (realistic i.e.<br>> KAM figures)<br>><br>> In S. Africa as of 2010, ESKOM, with a generating capacity of 38 200<br>> MW from 20 power stations, is one of the largest utilities in the<br>> world, and generated approximately 98% of South Africa's electricity.<br>> Generation was primarily coal-fired, but also includes two nuclear<br>> power stations at Koeberg (1,950 MW), two gas turbine facilities, two<br>> conventional hydroelectric plants, and two hydroelectric<br>> pumped-storage stations. Despite the above, demand exceeded supply<br>> capacity, and South African power exports have already been restricted<br>> and hence all projects planned by the South African Power Pool ground<br>> to a halt 3 years ago. S. Africa plans to bring onto
its grid 9.600 MW<br>> from nuclear power by 2030. Best lesson is that a country will look<br>> internally first before reaching out when faced with a bad situation.<br>> Kenya could borrow a leaf here!<br>><br>> In contrast to S. Africa, Germany had installed electricity generating<br>> capacity of 120, 000 MW (100 times Kenya's current capacity). From<br>> this Germany produced 566.9 billion kilowatt-hours (Bkwh) and consumed<br>> 524.6 Bwkh of electric power. The largest share of this production (61<br>> percent) came from conventional thermal sources (burning own and<br>> imported coal), followed by nuclear (28 percent), and other renewables<br>> (7 percent from mainly wind). Germany has an active electricity trade<br>> with neighboring countries, though it is usually a net exporter,<br>> Germany’s electricity grid industry association reported that the<br>> country exported 34.5 Bkwh of electric power
while importing 22.4<br>> Bkwh. Germany being an electricity secure country it can afford to<br>> export, it can shut down its nuclear power plants and remain<br>> sufficient, and it does not have a history of using emergency diesel<br>> generators to supply electricity to consumers! Kenya could also borrow<br>> from that nationalism aspect as emergency power enriches a few at the<br>> expense of multitudes!<br>><br>> Ni hayo tuuu.<br>><br>> Enjoy your Furahi day all.<br>><br>> Kind regards,<br>><br>> David<br>><br>> On 8/4/11, <a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a> <<a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>> wrote:<br>>> David,<br>>> Thank you. The following statement worries me:<br>>> Least Cost Power Development Plan which is its 2011-2031
outlook aims to<br>>> have in excess of 18,000 MW.<br>>><br>>> There is no medium income country in the world that has less than 40,000<br>>> MW. If by 2030 we want to be a medium income country, we must aim at<br>>> 50,000. Just look at South Africa with 45,000 and still experiencing<br>>> power outages.<br>>><br>>><br>>> Regards<br>>><br>>><br>>> Ndemo.<br>>><br>>><br>>><br>>><br>>><br>>><br>>>> Dear Dr. Ndemo,<br>>>><br>>>>> 4. This energy thing is critical. The technology on Coal has greatly<br>>>>> improved that you can have clean coal. We must at least do 5,000 MW<br>>>>> from<br>>>>> this source for us to catch up. We also must step up geothermal to<br>>>>> fully<br>>>>> exploit the green energy available. In
Northern Kenya we can use wind<br>>>>> energy since it is naturally available.<br>>>><br>>>> On the outset your plan to put 50% on agriculture and 40% on<br>>>> manufacturing is spot on.<br>>>><br>>>> My interest here is to enlighten you on energy, if you allow. Lets<br>>>> start with a story. 14 years ago while in Hungary I learnt that they<br>>>> generated more than 45% of their electricity from nuclear power plants<br>>>> and it was the duty of the government to install electricity in any<br>>>> habitable home (where human beings were living and residing in). For<br>>>> return and appreciation the citizen so provided with electricity paid<br>>>> per month an equivalent of a loaf of bread! If now less than kshs. 50.<br>>>><br>>>> That aside on the caption above. V2030 is a non starter without<br>>>> affordable,
quality and sufficient electricity which currently<br>>>> constitutes wood fuel and other biomass accounting for about 68% of<br>>>> the total primary energy consumption followed by petroleum at 22%,<br>>>> electricity at 9% and others including coal at about less than 1%.<br>>>> Solar energy is extensively used for drying and to some extent for<br>>>> heating and lighting, the latter mainly by middle class Kenyans.<br>>>><br>>>> On electricity alone, we have the Least Cost Power Development Plan<br>>>> which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to have in excess of 18,000 MW of<br>>>> which nuclear share will be 4,000 MW. We have geothermal potential of<br>>>> 7,000 MW and hence assuming we step up its utilization from the<br>>>> current 210 MW we would still have a shortfall on the aim of<br>>>> generating 18,000 MW. Our coal may give us 2,000 MW. To
increase we<br>>>> would have to import coal and hence aim having coal powered coal<br>>>> plants at the coast. Its true technologies for clean coal burning are<br>>>> available but the moment you apply them cost of electricity production<br>>>> goes higher and hence it (coal) loses its competitiveness against<br>>>> nuclear and burning oil. All countries on earth that have<br>>>> industrialized burnt gas, oil, coal and utilized nuclear for base load<br>>>> i.e. 24/7 all year round assured ,quality and sustained availability<br>>>> of electricity.<br>>>><br>>>> Wind, solar and hydro although cheaper in the short term they are not<br>>>> available throughout, and hence are not reliable for industrial needs<br>>>> (but they can go a long way in peaking arrangement i.e. taking the<br>>>> load off the grid when used in households, offices
that are<br>>>> constructed in future enabling utilization of natural lighting and<br>>>> installing solar panels etc.).<br>>>><br>>>> Imagine a nuclear power plant at Isiolo (or there abouts). With cheap<br>>>> electricity one can pump water from Arthi and Tana river in the former<br>>>> North Eastern Province and irrigate land; produce from the farming<br>>>> would enable good health from eating well and setting of value<br>>>> addition industries meeting your aim of 50% on agriculture and 40% on<br>>>> manufacturing.\<br>>>><br>>>> Currently electrification rate in Kenya is 15% (47% in Nairobi and<br>>>> less than 2% in most rural Kenya), 50% in Cameroon and Nigeria, 65% in<br>>>> Ghana, 70% in South Africa, 98% in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria<br>>>> and Libya! We need to stop comparing our electrification rate
with<br>>>> Somali, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi who are all below 15%!<br>>>><br>>>> Kind regards,<br>>>><br>>>> David<br>>>><br>>>><br>>>> On 8/4/11, <a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a> <<a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>> wrote:<br>>>>> Collins,<br>>>>> 1. We are in the same boat with strong winds. I am simply saying what<br>>>>> many people have said and we did not listen. In 1989 I made a proposal<br>>>>> to<br>>>>> the Kenya Government on how we could independent. The highlights of<br>>>>> the<br>>>>> proposal was to focus on modernizing agriculture through mechanization<br>>>>> and<br>>>>> setting
aside large tracks of land where we could take advantage of<br>>>>> economies of scale. I said our future food security would be in threat<br>>>>> due to climatic changes. I said that land sub division should be<br>>>>> halted<br>>>>> and start rural urbanization to create land for agriculture. My thesis<br>>>>> then and now was that subsistence farming was undermining economic<br>>>>> growth.<br>>>>><br>>>>> In my report I likened our situation with Switzerland. Switzerland has<br>>>>> a<br>>>>> population of 8 million in an area of 15,940 square miles (size of<br>>>>> Central<br>>>>> Province of Kenya). From here they it feeds her population and sends<br>>>>> the<br>>>>> surplus to Africa. Further I said we were wasting a lot of money in<br>>>>>
Tourism to entertain just a few people.<br>>>>><br>>>>> You can prove me right today but then I spent my entire holiday moving<br>>>>> from one office to another trying to explain what would be a problem in<br>>>>> my<br>>>>> country. Eventually I sat down with the then Director of Political<br>>>>> Affairs in the Ministry of Foreugn Affairs. He simply told me "young<br>>>>> man<br>>>>> you can go back to your USA here you are going to waste your time".<br>>>>><br>>>>> 2. We are all creative in a way and really thank you for supporting my<br>>>>> "candidacy".<br>>>>><br>>>>> 3. 50% on agriculture then 40% manufacturing. ICT does not need a lot<br>>>>> of<br>>>>> money to implement. On average most countries spend 6% of their annual<br>>>>>
budget on ICTs.<br>>>>><br>>>>> 4. This energy thing is critical. The technology on Coal has greatly<br>>>>> improved that you can have clean coal. We must at least do 5,000 MW<br>>>>> from<br>>>>> this source for us to catch up. We also must step up geothermal to<br>>>>> fully<br>>>>> exploit the green energy available. In Northern Kenya we can use wind<br>>>>> energy since it is naturally available.<br>>>>><br>>>>><br>>>>><br>>>>> Regards<br>>>>><br>>>>><br>>>>> Ndemo.<br>>>>><br>>>>><br>>>>><br>>>>><br>>>>>> 1: Ill jump into this albeit late and begin with a reference to a<br>>>>>> scriptural<br>>>>>> parable of the talents in Matthew 25. The moral being that
to whom<br>>>>>> much<br>>>>>> is<br>>>>>> given, much is expected and the converse being true. as a rhetorical<br>>>>>> question (you can answer if you like), have you made maximum use of<br>>>>>> the<br>>>>>> two<br>>>>>> talents you were given to deserve three in round two.<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> 2: It is indeed a positive thing that you would even consider a Ndemo<br>>>>>> Tosha<br>>>>>> because in the bigger picture of things, it would be a definate<br>>>>>> improvement<br>>>>>> from the status quo. I like that you have Ideas and visions about what<br>>>>>> can<br>>>>>> be needed to solve what, ICT indeed might be the holy grail in<br>>>>>> improving<br>>>>>> process and equalizing a lot of the bumps
that are exploited by<br>>>>>> uncreative<br>>>>>> Kenyans for profit.<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> 3: Onto my questions: Between Agriculture, ICT, Infrastructure and<br>>>>>> Manufacturing, how would you allocate say theoretically a 1trillion<br>>>>>> budget<br>>>>>> (just for these) and what would be the justification for leaning to<br>>>>>> which.<br>>>>>> The devil would be in the details but a rough estimate would show<br>>>>>> direction.<br>>>>>><br>>>>>><br>>>>>> 4: Mention something about a) somalia, b) Southern sudan, c) EPAs and<br>>>>>> d)<br>>>>>> Kyoto viz a viz cheap energy.<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> cheers...<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 11:31 AM, aki <<a
ymailto="mailto:aki275@gmail.com" href="/mc/compose?to=aki275@gmail.com">aki275@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>>>>>><br>>>>>>> Thank you Dr Ndemo for the comments.<br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>> I'd also like to add that govt policies and programs are the initial<br>>>>>>> catalyst drive because the private sector is what it is i.e. does not<br>>>>>>> fund<br>>>>>>> research or development ( not in Kenya ). And for many decades<br>>>>>>> economic<br>>>>>>> policies have placed favour over import versus local development, we<br>>>>>>> are<br>>>>>>> at<br>>>>>>> a stage today that it would probably takes us another 40-50 years to<br>>>>>>> even<br>>>>>>> design/produce the simplest semi-conductor available on the
market<br>>>>>>> today.<br>>>>>>> The same design can be done at University levels in other countries.<br>>>>>>> We<br>>>>>>> are<br>>>>>>> really at a tough place because if we don't fast track with imports,<br>>>>>>> we<br>>>>>>> will<br>>>>>>> get left behind. And if we don't implement long term ways towards<br>>>>>>> core<br>>>>>>> development, we are bound to become literally a "sales,marketing<br>>>>>>> and consultants" country which only has very short term benefits.<br>>>>>>> Today,<br>>>>>>> we<br>>>>>>> give the chance to external partners to help with technology needs<br>>>>>>> and<br>>>>>>> systems, yet we are capable of creating or building upon these
given<br>>>>>>> the<br>>>>>>> correct environment. It will be our biggest loss in future if we do<br>>>>>>> not<br>>>>>>> change course and take on the internal development segment with force<br>>>>>>> and<br>>>>>>> commitment. Just as the US identified itself as a major defense<br>>>>>>> exporter<br>>>>>>> economy thereby creating most of the advance<br>>>>>>> systems-engineers-mulit-million<br>>>>>>> dollar industries--highly educated employment, I think we also need<br>>>>>>> to<br>>>>>>> define what we want to do and how to get there.<br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>> Starting at Sciences is really good, but would you kindly add what<br>>>>>>> esle<br>>>>>>> would be the catalysts
towards creating and sustaining internal<br>>>>>>> development?<br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>> Thank you.<br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 10:43 AM, <<a ymailto="mailto:bitange@jambo.co.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=bitange@jambo.co.ke">bitange@jambo.co.ke</a>> wrote:<br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>> Aki,<br>>>>>>>> You now can understand why we need to stop business and general<br>>>>>>>> degree<br>>>>>>>> programmes. This is why we are more of traders than industrialists.<br>>>>>>>> I<br>>>>>>>> went to US for studies in the 1980's. In 1987 I was President
of<br>>>>>>>> International Students at the University of Minnesota. We were<br>>>>>>>> 5,000<br>>>>>>>> foreign students in a student population of 120,000. The majority of<br>>>>>>>> students were from Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea. Of the<br>>>>>>>> Asian<br>>>>>>>> students, 98% were in engineering courses the remaider were in<br>>>>>>>> creative<br>>>>>>>> art degree program.<br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>> These countries became what we call Newly Industrialized Countries<br>>>>>>>> (NICs).<br>>>>>>>> In economic comparative terms, they were behind Kenya. Today we buy<br>>>>>>>> everything from them. They manufactured nothing then. Infact
we<br>>>>>>>> used<br>>>>>>>> to<br>>>>>>>> love at the Hyundai Ponny that was first manufactured by Koreans.<br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>> We now must remove all fees for any student enrolled in science and<br>>>>>>>> creative degree programs. The rest can pay. When we started<br>>>>>>>> producing<br>>>>>>>> more computer graduates, we started seeing application development<br>>>>>>>> in<br>>>>>>>> Kenya to the extent that the world has started to recognize.<br>>>>>>>> Similarly,<br>>>>>>>> if we indeed want to industrialize, we must move to science. There<br>>>>>>>> are<br>>>>>>>> no<br>>>>>>>>
options.<br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>> India has just realized this and they are taking jobs from<br>>>>>>>> overheating<br>>>>>>>> China. Our comparative advatange in this region is the human<br>>>>>>>> resource.<br>>>>>>>> Let us develop it, support it and guide it to the right direction.<br>>>>>>>> Regional influence is what will matter in the days to come. As such<br>>>>>>>> we<br>>>>>>>> must endeavor to see that Vision 2030 is realized in 2020. This is<br>>>>>>>> possible.<br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>> Regards<br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>>
Ndemo.<br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>><br>>>>>>><br>>>>>>>_______________________________________________<br>>>>>>> kictanet mailing list<br>>>>>>> <a ymailto="mailto:kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" href="/mc/compose?to=kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a><br>>>>>>> <a href="http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet" target="_blank">http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet
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</a><br>>>>><br>>>>> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform<br>>>>> for<br>>>>> people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and<br>>>>> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT<br>>>>> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and<br>>>>> development.<br>>>>><br>>>>> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors<br>>>>> online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and<br>>>>> bandwidth,<br>>>>> share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy,<br>>>>> do<br>>>>> not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.<br>>>>><br>>>><br>>>> ----------------------------------------------<br>>>>
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