<font class="Apple-style-span" size="4">Hi Walu and other esteemed Kenyans,</font><div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><br></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4">This debate is interesting. As mentioned earlier by someone, the debate would be more enlightening if the cost structure of these MNOs had been in the public domain. But all is not lost; there are some basic parameters already in the public domain ie. (1) Safaricom's dominant position of about 77% market share and (2) Airtel's low price strategy including their 1 bob on-net offer in an attempt to eat into Safaricom's market share. It appears a little premature then to raise a concern of Anti-Trust against a non-dominant player, when they have not even achieved a half of the dominant player's market share.</font></div>
<div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><br></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4">The current cost structure and profit margins for voice, SMS and all other product offerings is what we really need to understand before going into any conclusion on long term sustainability. It seems easy to see that brand loyalty and patriotic sentiments are strong everywhere this debate comes up but it might also help to see these harder facts. </font></div>
<div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><br></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4">Lastly, in today's dynamic economic environment, one has to either innovate or die - and our dear Safaricom has demonstrated substantial competence on this. It then appears that innovation is what will sustain growth of the industry - really not regulation and protectionism.</font></div>
<div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><br></font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4">Best regards</font><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Jan 18, 2011 at 6:09 PM, Walubengo J <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jwalu@yahoo.com">jwalu@yahoo.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" style="font:inherit">Harry, tough questions you have and the answers may most likely neutralize my argument. But the bigger point is/was that certain type of competitive tactics can be counterproductive when looked at from a Macro perspective. Yes, you (Airtel) wins todays battle, but someone bigger than Safcom will lose the war.<br>
<br>With the Microsoft Case- European Courts ruled that their tactic was anti-competitive and they were forced to seperate their Browser from their OS, rather than sell as a bundle. But I think it was a case of too little too late. Did internet numbers go down? probably not since Internet numbers do depend on more factors other than just Browsers. <br>
<br>But for the mobile industry, their growth and expanse does depend on revenues. I can forcasts that VOICE Revenue generated from all players might be the same as last year because the
voice industry may not grow - it will simply be shared out.. And after the price-wars are over and an equilibrium is established (maybe Airtel 50% others 50%) it will dawn on everyone that they incoming revenue streams is insufficient to deliver expansion or extend the services outside their current levels.<br>
<br>walu.<div class="im"><br><br><br> <br><br>--- On <b>Tue, 1/18/11, Harry Hare <i><<a href="mailto:harry@africanedevelopment.org" target="_blank">harry@africanedevelopment.org</a>></i></b> wrote:<br></div><blockquote style="border-left:2px solid rgb(16, 16, 255);margin-left:5px;padding-left:5px">
<div class="im"><br>From: Harry Hare <<a href="mailto:harry@africanedevelopment.org" target="_blank">harry@africanedevelopment.org</a>><br></div><div class="im">Subject: Re: [kictanet] [Skunkworks] Are we letting the PS get away with this too?<br>
</div>To: "Walubengo J" <<a href="mailto:jwalu@yahoo.com" target="_blank">jwalu@yahoo.com</a>><div class="im"><br>Cc: "KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions" <<a href="mailto:kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" target="_blank">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a>><br>
</div>Date: Tuesday, January 18, 2011, 5:22 PM<br><br><div><div class="im"><div><div><div>Walu good analogy with Netscape and MS IE.
However</div><ol><li>Did the Internet die with the death of Netscape? </li><li>Did the Internet numbers stay constant with the death of Netscape?</li><li>Did Microsoft marketshare drop?</li><li>Did innovation on the internet stop?</li>
</ol><div>Guys, let get real, this is business…natural selection comes into play.</div><div><br></div><div><div>Kindest Regards</div><div><br></div><div>Harry Hare</div><div>Director</div><div><img src="?ui=2&ik=46e0d64d56&view=att&th=12d99b503ee9f778&attid=0.0.1.1&disp=emb&zw"></div>
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<span style="font-weight:bold">From: </span> John Walubengo <<a rel="nofollow" href="http://mc/compose?to=jwalu@yahoo.com" target="_blank">jwalu@yahoo.com</a>><br><span style="font-weight:bold">Date: </span> Tue, 18 Jan 2011 05:35:58 -0800 (PST)<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">To: </span> Harry Hare <<a rel="nofollow" href="http://mc/compose?to=harry@africanedevelopment.org" target="_blank">harry@africanedevelopment.org</a>><div class="im"><br><span style="font-weight:bold">Cc: </span> KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <<a rel="nofollow" href="http://mc/compose?to=kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" target="_blank">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a>><br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Subject: </span> Re: [kictanet] [Skunkworks] Are we letting the PS get away with this too?<br></div></div><div><br></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td style="font:inherit" valign="top">
<div class="im">Here are my thoughts.<br><br>The PS is right about predatory pricing never aimed at growing the Industry. For those who were "alive" at the beginning of the web-browser wars in early 1990s. Netscape was King. Then Microsoft came in and gave away its product Internet Explorer(IE) - for free. Everyone
was happy - until they realized they were paying for the Microsoft IE through other means (by buying for the OS for example). But by then Netscape as a competitor was as dead as the Dodo. Microsoft Mission accomplished.<br>
<br>Folks, Airtel is not here because they love giving free things. I am not privy to their Strategy but it can be read by anyone. Their aim is not to grow/extend the Service, but rather to eat Safaricom's lunch. At a consumer level, nothing really wrong with that and infact it is Christmas time for consumers. BUT at a national
level, what you have is that the 20million subscribers you currently have in the country, will remain 20million subscriber five years later. Only that half of them will be sitting on Airtel's network and the other half will be with "Others". Net growth for Kenya? =ZERO<br>
<br>Airtel's strategy wont kill the mobile industry, but believe you me, it will stiffle its growth in the long run, because the returns to the investors will not be sufficient to sustain operations, let alone extend the network or pay for innovation.<br>
<br><p style="margin-bottom:0in">That said, as a consumer, Airtel's offer is truly irresistible and worth considering. But as a scholar, I do know, and agree that it is not good for the industry in the long run.<br></p>
<br>walu.<br><br><br>--- On <b>Tue, 1/18/11, Odhiambo Washington <i><<a rel="nofollow" href="http://mc/compose?to=odhiambo@gmail.com" target="_blank">odhiambo@gmail.com</a>></i></b> wrote:<br></div><blockquote style="border-left:2px solid rgb(16, 16, 255);margin-left:5px;padding-left:5px">
<div class="im"><br>From: Odhiambo Washington <<a rel="nofollow" href="http://mc/compose?to=odhiambo@gmail.com" target="_blank">odhiambo@gmail.com</a>><br></div><div class="im">Subject: Re: [kictanet] [Skunkworks] Are we letting the PS get away with this too?<br>
</div>To: <a rel="nofollow" href="http://mc/compose?to=jwalu@yahoo.com" target="_blank">jwalu@yahoo.com</a><div class="im"><br>Cc: "KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions" <<a rel="nofollow" href="http://mc/compose?to=kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" target="_blank">kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke</a>><br>
</div><div class="im">Date: Tuesday, January 18, 2011, 1:22 PM<br><br></div><div><div class="im"><br><br><div>On Tue, Jan 18, 2011 at 1:18 PM,
Barrack Otieno <span dir="ltr"><<a rel="nofollow">otieno.barrack@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote style="margin:0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-left:1ex">
You have a point Brainiac, there are many factors in your argument which need to be tackled and as such we may need expert opinion on some issues, a corporate entity is treated as a person and as the saying goes one mans meat is another mans poison, what are the implications of certain moves on new market entrants? How will the other Telcos survive in the market?, this is where regulation comes in to ensure a piece of cake for everyone. <div>
<div></div><div></div></div></blockquote></div><div><br></div>Before making this debate so complicated, is Airtel's move interpreted as a means towards crippling the mobile industry?</div><div><div class="im">Why is this position not being applied on the Internet Service Provision industry then? We always heard promises of "prices will come down" but when they do now, the govt is gonna lose revenue? Puleease!<br clear="all">
<br>-- <br></div><div class="im">Best regards,<br>Odhiambo
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