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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Garamond","serif"'>Dear Colleagues,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Garamond","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Garamond","serif"'>As we await our
own FON, there could be some lessons from this experience. One year after the
commissioning of the government funded terrestrial fibre optic network in Tanzania,
the network has remained relatively idle. Some basic business fundamentals
could have been ignored or assumed. Read on.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Garamond","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Garamond","serif"'>Harry<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Garamond","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> eThinkTankTz@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:eThinkTankTz@yahoogroups.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Rama Mwikalo<br>
<b>Sent:</b> 17 June 2008 00:36<br>
<b>To:</b> ethinktanktz@yahoogroups.com<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [www.eThinkTankTz.org] ICT BACKBONE: A solution in search of a
problem or is it just a white elephant?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>National ICT Optical Fiber Backbone: <br>
Is this a solution in search of a problem or just a white elephant?<br>
<br>
<br>
It is a sad indictment of the current state of the ICT backbone infrastructure
when a newly commissioned ultra-modern optical fiber system is sitting idle
with absolutely no customers; zero. This may sound like an exaggeration but it
is not a very big one! Apart from the standard internal and management traffic
required to keep the system chugging and humming along, there are practically
no paying customers to speak of on the system. The old adage, some may
say myth, that says “if you build it, they will come” was probably taken too
literally by the companies that decided to invest their hard-earned T-shillings
in the ICT optical fiber infrastructure. The system has been idle ever since it
was officially commissioned little over a year ago, according to Charles
Makakala – a member and regular contributor to the Tanzania e-Think Tank online
discussion group. All we can say is that whatever business plan was used
to justify this investment, it<br>
was not a plan for spiking the ball on the 20 yard - to use an American
football metaphor.<br>
<br>
By all accounts, what has been implemented is an ultra-modern state of the art
transmission system based on the latest high capacity DWDM (Dense Wave Division
Multiplexing) fiber optics technology. According to Mr Makakala, the system has
been deployed across nine regional traffic hubs including some smaller towns,
and it has an estimated transport capacity of nearly 4 Gigabit per second. Just
so we all know, this represents enough bandwidth to carry up to 400 times the
current voice traffic generated by all major mobile phone operators namely,
Vodacom, Celtel, Tigo and Zantel. <br>
<br>
It would have been hilarious if it weren’t downright cruel for these
well-meaning folks to have invested so much to achieve so little. This is
undoubtedly an important national venture and the service is desperately needed
for the development of our country, so what went wrong?<br>
<br>
No one could have expected – not by any stretch of imagination – that in a
country that still requires more ICT investment – not less – there would be a
glut of data transmission bandwidth sitting idle and begging for customers but
there are no takers. In the meantime, Tanzanians of all shapes and stripes are
burdened with one of the highest and out-of-reach telecommunication service
tariffs in Africa. Needless to say, there is a huge disconnect; it makes very
little sense and clearly deserves a detailed examination and analysis. <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Considering the way things have turned out, perhaps we should begin by
speculating or asking what was the business plan that was used to justify the
implementation the optical fiber infrastructure that has been deployed and
commissioned? Who were the targeted customers and were they consulted to
determine what it would take to get them on board as paying customers?
These are basic market research questions… If the ICT backbone was built
hoping “customers will come”, well we should not be surprised now that the
chickens are coming home to roost and the outcome is so dramatically different
from the investors expectations not to mention prayers.<br>
<br>
Some of the basic and fundamental market research and analysis questions that
should have been asked are: <br>
<br>
§ Who are likely to be the
major customers for the optical fiber super-highway and where are they
geographically located? <br>
§ What are they planning to use
the optical fiber bandwidth for? <br>
§ How much aggregate bandwidth
is need and, more importantly, where is that bandwidth needed? <br>
§ What special interfaces are
needed by the customers?<br>
§ What kind of problems are
these “potential customers” currently experiencing that the optical fiber
infrastructure would be ideally suited to solve? <br>
§ How much are they expecting
and willing to pay for the bandwidth in order to subscribe to the new service?<br>
§ What other competing
technologies are available and how much are they paying today? <br>
<br>
<br>
We can delve a little deeper into some of these questions a little later to try
to come up with possible answers that may be helpful feedback into the next ICT
infrastructure project whether privately or publicly funded. As a way of
illustrations, I am planning to use broadband internet access, mobile phone and
triple-play which are considered to be the “killer applications” (to employ an
overused term) for the national fiber infrastructure.<br>
<br>
I will also say a few words about the appropriateness (or lack thereof) of
assigning the management of a government funded ICT optical fiber backbone to
TTCL. Since I am not employed by any of these companies I can afford not to take
sides in the proverbial “mwamba ngoma” tradition. I get chills down my
spine when I hear that the mobile phone companies are among the targeted
customers for this government funded initiative in which TTCL is the designated
operator. Last time I checked, TTCL was still competing against the very
customers it is supposed to serve! God help us should, in the unlikely
event, the system encounter a catastrophic failure, a possibility that cannot
be ruled out; would TTCL be expected to give top priority to its own mobile
phone customers over its competitors or are they likely to be fair and
even-handed? <br>
<br>
And so we bear witness to the specter of the least successful mobile phone
service provider trying to bail out its more successful competitors! It takes two
leaps of faith to believe that TTCL will be even-handed and quite frankly, I am
not at all surprised why the targeted customers appear to be dragging their
feet. The business model needs to be revisited. And as I said earlier, I
intend to address this issue and others in a follow up contribution.<br>
<br>
<br>
Rama Mwikalo<br>
Technology Consultant<br>
Silicon Valley, California, USA<br>
(512) 947-7668<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
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