[kictanet] Cambridge Analytica and the Kenyan Elections

Thu May 11 09:17:03 EAT 2017

Good morning,

I was thinking along similar lines. 

Data Analytics only works for someone if they are data driven in their decision-making.

Unfortunately, (in my opinion) we have very little data driven decision making in the Kenyan public sector.

Regards,

Alex

From: kictanet [mailto:kictanet-bounces+awatila=yahoo.co.uk at lists.kictanet.or.ke] On Behalf Of Ronald Ojino via kictanet
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2017 8:10 PM
To: awatila at yahoo.co.uk
Cc: Ronald Ojino <ronojinx at gmail.com>; Treblex at predictiveanalytics.co.ke
Subject: Re: [kictanet] Cambridge Analytica and the Kenyan Elections

Interesting times ahead indeed....The founder of Cambridge Analytica, Kosinski once stated that there is alot of data to mine and algorithms keep getting better. It would be very interesting to see if it works this time round...taking note that this is Kenya where our politics is not driven majorly by issues but other deep rooted issues like 'our man syndrome' etc...it may not play out as expected...lets wait and see... My worry in this era remains the amount of digital footprint we leave online...not only can these guys mine information about our political affiliation but much more..this should really be worried.

Ronald Ojino

On 10-May-2017 5:06 PM, "Erick Mwangi via kictanet" <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

Harry,

Purely unfortunate approach adopted here. What is more effective in the two statements?

1 - This is a private beach, do not swim!

2 - Crocodiles present - do not swim!

E Njoroge Mwangi

Technology| FINTECH | Big Data

Cell +44 7539372742 <tel:+44%207539%20372742> 

Skype: Erick.mwangi

On Wed, May 10, 2017 at 2:32 PM, Harry Delano via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

Well,

For a moment there, I felt we were discussing pure data analytics, but if Mutemi's earlier contribution is placed in the context of what we have witnessed in the muddied waters of Brexit, U.S elections and recently France, then a disturbing pattern in this trade that blurs the line on the scientifics is now emerging rather fast, since everyone contestant wants a win at all costs and the firms want to deliver, and earn big on the other hand..! Add to this  other geo-political factors at play - it's muddied indeed.

It's a mercenary like approach, that employ psycho metric data-driven warfare to a deadly effect as opposed to  traditional data-driven analytics that should majorly factor in and be driven in part by the socio-economic welfare of the audience. Instead this seems to have evolved quickly into scare mongering tactics that leverage data mining(ethical and unethical) to appeal to and incite the target audience's worst instincts. This should be shunned ..

Harry

From: Grace Mutung'u via kictanet

Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2017 14:52

To: Harry Delano

Reply To: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions

Cc: Grace Mutung'u; Treblex at predictiveanalytics.co.ke <mailto:Treblex at predictiveanalytics.co.ke> 

Subject: Re: [kictanet] Cambridge Analytica and the Kenyan Elections

@Douglas and all, 
It will be interesting to understand what other factors (apart from ethnicity) tip an election at national level in Kenya. Is the middle class vote going to count? So keyboard warriors have a significant effect afterall
@Coach, I am reading comments about the upcoming presidential debates and my conclusions is that people have already made their decisions and the debates are for other purposes. Would data really help to pull voters heartstrings? 

@John Nduvala,  please share your insights from your book. This is interesting 

On 10 May 2017 7:34 a.m., "Timothy- Coach- Oriedo via kictanet" <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

It's fallacy to consider Big Data as a preserve for traditional data as most comments posit.

On the contrary Big Data is for the chaff, it looks for meaning where you wouldn't find.  With the advent of social media there is more fodder for data scientists who have backgrounds in psychology, anthropology, sociology who work together with stasticians and computer scientiss to build algorithms and API  that run on Natural Language Processing to mine data and transform it into various dimensions. 

Having said that be aware the biggest use case for Cambridge Analytical solution is nuansing of communication campaigns to target behaviour change especially in swing vote areas and also for gerry mandering of legislative boundaries. 

Watch the space.

Regards 

Timothy Oriedo

Co-founder

Predictive Analytics 

www.predictiveanalytics.co.ke <http://www.predictiveanalytics.co.ke>  

Timothy Oriedo

about.me/Timoriedo <http://about.me/Timoriedo> 

On 10 May 2017 14:25, "Douglas Gichuki via kictanet" <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

A major question for CA to answer is the quantum of voter fluidity in the Kenyan ecosystem. That is; what is the likelihood that there is an actual swing vote in Kenya? Are these swing voters online and on social media?

The two major political groupings draw their support from what seem to be unmovable, unwavering and unquestioning bases. This is largely because of the central organising question of our politics around ethnic nationalism. As such, the exasperated voter in the middle is likely to be voting for a fringe candidate, or not voting at all. In this climate, who will CA be targeting with their psychometrics?

On May 10, 2017 1:07 PM, "John Ndavula via kictanet" <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

In my book Social Media Adoption and Campaigns in Kenya, scheduled for publication in June this year, I explore the relationship between social media and politics, more precisely the political campaign. One of the questions I address is: What power do social media exercise in the political campaign process in Kenya? Although my empirical data is hinged on the 2013 general elections, it is interesting to note that this question continues to excite interest in the 2017 political campaigns.

John Ndavula

On Wed, May 10, 2017 at 1:58 PM, Mutemi wa Kiama via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

Which company are NASA using?

Edwin Kiama

Thoughts become things... choose the good ones!

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On 10 May 2017 1:35 p.m., "Ali Hussein via kictanet" <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

Grace and all

There is enough digital data in this country to tip an election. With over 6 million Facebook users (Maybe the FB team on this list can verify it), with our own version of fake news and negative websites going up both for and against the incumbents and the opposition, with Kenyans being one of the most digitally savvy in the continent the stage is set for interesting times.

One thing is for sure - We have enough digital data in this country to tip an election.

We are now mainstream digitally. Fact.

Oh..And NASA also has the equivalent of CA on their side. :-) So this is evenly matched when it comes to digital arsenals. All I can tell you guys is this:-

Buy popcorn, a coke, or your other favourite drink and enjoy the show. Just don't forget to vote for your favourite candidate!! Or Party! :-)

Regards 

  <http://t.sidekickopen16.com/e1t/o/5/f18dQhb0S7ks8dDMPbW2n0x6l2B9gXrN7sKj6v4LNdFMd_KMKRbM7xW4Wzv6P2zlZNzW26tGP91k1H6H0?si=6190904865718272&pi=e831e152-eb5f-45b1-bb08-11817ce739fe> 

Ali Hussein

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Any information of a personal nature expressed in this email are purely mine and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the organizations that I work with. 

On Wed, May 10, 2017 at 12:29 PM, Grace Mutung'u via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke <mailto:kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> > wrote:

Jubilee has contracted the services of global data mining company Cambridge Analytica in the run-up to the August presidential election.

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/05/10/uhuru-hires-data-firm-behind-trump-brexit-victories_c1557720

Do we really have that much data in Kenya for the kind of data mining that Cambridge Analytica allegedly carries out? 
Interesting times.... 

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