[kictanet] Airtel Plans Africa Exit - of dominance etc

Walubengo J jwalu at yahoo.com
Wed Feb 1 14:29:56 EAT 2017


@Ali,
In academics, a hypothesis has an equal chance of being true or false. 
It is upon the regulator, competitors, subscribers and/ or any other interested to subject the hypothesis through a test - by collecting appropriate evidence and subsequently testing the hypothesis.
The fact that no one has done this, or is yet to carry out the test,  should not imply that the hypothesis is false. Tafakari hayo :-)
Anyway, we shall further interrogate this and many other mobile network questions soon (GG?) when KICTAnet will moderate a 1week session titled 'Talk-2-Safaricom'. 
Stay tuned.
walu.

      From: Ali Hussein via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
 To: jwalu at yahoo.com 
Cc: Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke>; KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
 Sent: Wednesday, February 1, 2017 1:06 PM
 Subject: Re: [kictanet] Airtel Plans Africa Exit
   
Brian
Let me latch on to that word Hypothetical. :-)

According to the English Dictionary this means:-
'Supposed but not necessarily real or true'
Need I say more? :-)
Ali HusseinPrincipalHussein & Associates+254 0713 601113 
Twitter: @AliHKassimSkype: abu-jomoLinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin.com/in/alihkassim
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but a habit."  ~ Aristotle

Sent from my iPad
On 1 Feb 2017, at 10:42 AM, Brian Munyao Longwe <blongwe at gmail.com> wrote:


Dear Ali,

Solid points. My premise is that Safaricom has a "hypothetical monopoly" in a number of their product lines. In essence, they can increase their prices on these products by 5-10% and customers wouldn't have an alternative supply/supplier. This is the most basic litmus test for market dominance. (My friends from the legal, regulatory and competition vectors can correct me if I err.) It is a sensitive subject and please accept my apology for diverting from the genesis of this thread (Airtel exit) and belaboring the point regarding  Safaricom's (alleged) significant market power. I'll rest my case and leave it to the powers that be to determine the best way forward.

Yours always,

Mblayo

On Wed, Feb 1, 2017 at 4:02 AM, Ali Hussein via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:

Brian/Barrack
Very true. There could be instances of abuse of Market Power. This doesn't stop us as customers and competitors to point these out. And seeking remedies. There must however be evidence of this and a formal complaint lodged with the Regulator and/or courts.
The Chairman of Airtel is the one who started this particular firestorm of Africa Exit at Davos.
https://www.bloomberg.com/ news/articles/2017-01-20/ airtel-considering-exits- stake-sales-at-some-africa- operations
So no fake news here.
Brian, my major concern about Market Dominance is how we define it and execute remedies against its abuse. The assumption that I simply cannot agree with is that Customers are so dumb that they will continue giving Safaricom a bigger and bigger chunk of their share of the wallet because of coercion and lack of choice. We have choices guys. There are a number of player now that are not even telcos that are starting to chip at Safaricom's Dominance when it comes to mobile money..Not to mention the fact that cash is still king? 
I won't even dwell on the other aspects - voice, data etc. the competition is vibrant and competitors coming out of the woodwork. From places we haven't even fathomed yet.
While the other telco competitors are mulling exits and crying foul of skewed playing fields Safaricom is busy sassing out who their next competitors are..
Tafakari hayo (think about that).
Ali HusseinPrincipalHussein & Associates+254 0713 601113 
Twitter: @AliHKassimSkype: abu-jomoLinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin. com/in/alihkassim
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but a habit."  ~ Aristotle

Sent from my iPad
On 1 Feb 2017, at 12:10 AM, Barrack Otieno via kictanet <kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke > wrote:


Many thanks Mblayo for your insightfull comments.

By the Ali and listers, i heard on Radio Airtel disputing claims that
they are planning to exit the African Market. Seems like we are
dealing with Fake news or what?

Regards

On 1/31/17, Brian Munyao Longwe via kictanet
<kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke > wrote:

Hussein,





I agree with you that in a competitive market the stronger will have a


certain level of dominance. However in the telecoms industry, and more


specifically when we talk about a space with a limited number of issued


licenses (call them competitors), things can go very wrong very quickly if


an eye isn't kept on a dominant player with significant market power (SMP)


which can be abused to produce anti-competitive effects. It is also very


necessary to reduce the granularity of analysis almost to the product level


as a company can have varying levels of market dominance across different


ranges of product offerings, a good example is m-pesa which has already


been cited (my guesstimate is that Safaricom has about 98-99% market share


in mobile money). Thereafter a composite of the various dominances(sic)


across various products lines would probably give a fair idea of the extent


to which the company dmoinates overall.





At this point it would be possible to determine whether anti-trust


methodologies, regulatory interventions, policy interventions are


necessary. At the crux of all of this is the strength (and independence) of


the various regulatory authorities (comms regulator, competition authority,


revenue authority et al). And of course underpinning all of this is the


strength of the policy, legislative and statutory frameworks that govern


the space.





IMHO the country is a the mercy of Safaricom's goodwill. All the company


needs is a Trump who will strong-arm all of the actors/players into dancing


to his/her tune...





My two sumuni,





Mblayo





On Tue, Jan 31, 2017 at 12:20 AM, Beryl Aidi via kictanet <


kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:






Hello everyone,




Interesting debate. And after all the vibrant debate, explanations and




the




likely perception of Safaricom as the bad guys or reaping from policies




skewed to their advantage, for me the Big Q is why is Airtel exiting




other




countries as well? Can it be facing the same issues across the board, or




could it be simply not understanding the African market altogether?




Way back when in the early days, I think they were first to introduce the




concept of sharing airtime called Me2U. I might have seen a TV ad or two




on




NTV and KTN and that was it. Safaricom took the idea, called it Sambaza,




advertized where wananchi were and the rest is history. And the same




pattern repeated itself in many ways, just knowing how to get people's




hearts. Remember the Masai ad?




Sometimes the answers are in the simple things.









Best




Beryl









On Mon, Jan 30, 2017 at 9:44 PM, Ngigi Waithaka via kictanet <




kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:










Ali,













My very last take on this....













What you refer to, that the market always corrects itself assumes a






pretty fair playing field, in which case, yes!













However, closely associated with market dominance is monopoly tendencies






(stolen from Julius Malema), illegal & underhand business practices and






*ultimately* anti-competitive behaviours!













Lets look back at Microsoft versus everyone else. While Microsoft wasn't






broken up as was initially suggested, they were forced to open up their






API






for the operating system to ensure that every developer using the






Microsoft






Windows API got the exact same API.













They were also forced to unbundle IE from the OS. If you remember






Windows






'98, IE was equivalent to the Windows Shell. You used it upende






usipende!






What did that do to other browsers, it killed them off one by one!













When they unbundled the browser and gave users a choice on the Windows






Platform we got Firefox, Google Chrome et.al.... Innovation













Look to the other side of Microsoft incenstious relationship with Intel






forming the formidable WinTel!













Intel at the height of its anti-competitive behaviour paid Dell more






than






USD 1B *NOT* to use AMD chips which were by then leading in the






processors






war. Remember AMD gave us 64bit computing way ahead of Intel.













It is not hard to imagine what 'illegal' things one would do if you had






a






few Billion shillings to spend against your competitors with no






anti-competition laws. You could:






1. Pay every mobile agent to make sure they never offer services for






other providers apart from yours






2. With you advertising budget running into Bs ensure that your






competition never airs any Ads from your competitors, until you






'approve'






it.






3, with your deep pockets ensure no 'bad' or illegal practices that you






are heavily involved in are mentioned anywhere in the media. If any






media






house airs any, you pull-off your entire media bookings from them until






they 'shika adabu'!






4. Buy the entire usable bandwidth from TEAMS without using it, simply






to






starve your competition until they surrender.






4. Buy the entire stock of your competitions 'bottles' to make sure they






keep on manufacturing news ones every time as opposed to simply






recycling






them.






5. Ensure that no mobile phone provider pre-loads any competing app to






your core apps, whether they are sold on your network on not! If they






do,






you simply cancel all their orders and voila, watu wanashika adabu!






6. Ensure no one even dreams of selling dual-sim phones through your






network... yeah, this one was hilarious & true!













Point is, Market dominance that ultimately leads to anti-competitive






behaviour, which ultimately stifles competition.













Think about it, what-if, just before M-Pesa launched, Airtel Kenya which






I think was at par with Safaricom then, called their lobbyist and handed






them some seriously loaded brown envelopes to kill of the then nascent






mobile money transfer technology, where would we be today?













And that's why I shuddered when Equity came up with the novel idea of






using SIM Card overlays, which Safaricom fought tooth and nail to stop,






including using serious  FUD, the Courts, Government bureaucracy et.al






to stop an idea whose time had come!













Equitel was *lucky* to see the next day. You could argue they had deep






pockets!













But, what of that kid in campus who comes up with MPesa reloaded, will






he






survive the onslaught? What if WhatsApp was a Kenyan firm, threatening






to






take away crucial revenue from SMS from Safaricom as an example?













Would they have been allowed to thrive?













How many 'ICT practitioners' would have come out of the woodwork to






claim






that this technology was 'unsafe', 'untested', 'unregulated'?













How many media outlets would have covered their success stories without






fear of antagonizing their loaded telco customers?













How many phone providers would have dared to be been 'seen' to






advertising Whatsapp on their phones?













List goes on & on.













My point is, market dominance without very solid & well implemented






anti-competition laws stifles innovation big time.













P.S






Every scenario I have picked on, on what I would do if I had a few Bs to






smoother my competition is hypothetical and likeness to any real






scenario






is by mere inter-galactic coincidence :-)













Rgds













On Mon, Jan 30, 2017 at 12:22 PM, Ali Hussein via kictanet <






kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:














Job

















I believe you are referring to two phenomena that are becoming common








place today:-

















1. Interoperability - This implies open standards, ability of systems








to








talk to each other seamlessly. My prediction is this:- any company that








doesn't adhere to this thinking will be dead in less than 3 years. The








new








Mantra in Business is *Platform Thinking*. I advise you read this








article in HBR:-

















https://hbr.org/2016/04/ pipelines-platforms-and-the- new-rule








s-of-strategy

















2. The Network Effect. In economics and business the  *network effect*








(also








called *network externality* or *demand-side economies of scale*) is








the effect that one user of a good or service has on the value of that








product to other people. When a network effect is present, the value of








a








product or service is dependent on the number of others using it.








(Wikipedia)

















This simply means that Safaricom has been better at executing than the








competition.

















Let's look at Equity Bank for a moment. They partnered with Safaricom








initially with their Mkesho Product. We know that story. It simply








didn't








go well.

















So what did Equity do? Moan? Complain about Safaricom's Dominance or








unfairness? Or cry foul on legislation?  We know that story too. Today








Safaricom understands one thing. They have a serious competitor in








Equity.

















That's how the game is played people. If you wait for the galaxies to








align for you then you better roll over and play for dead. Because we








all








know that if you want to be the Big Cajuna in the room - You make the








Galaxies align for you.

















As my son keeps on remind me - Don't hate the Player...Hate the








Game..and change it!! :-)

















*Ali Hussein*








*Principal*








*Hussein & Associates*








+254 0713 601113 <+254%20713%20601113>

















Twitter: @AliHKassim

















Skype: abu-jomo

















LinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin.com/in/ alihkassim

















"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but








a habit."  ~ Aristotle


























Sent from my iPad

















On 30 Jan 2017, at 12:02 PM, Job Muriuki <muriukin at gmail.com> wrote:

















Ali,

















I mean they open up Mpesa and they pay loyalties.








Currently, it's like been paid with Barclays bank cheque while you bank








with CBA and the two don't honour foreign cheques so you are forced to








open








a Barclays account and before you know it you end up not banking with








CBA








altogether. Not that Barclays has better services but somehow you have








been








arm twisted to using them.


























Regards,








Job Muriuki,

















Skype: heviejob












































On Mon, Jan 30, 2017 at 11:43 AM, Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke>








wrote:


















Job





















Are you suggesting that Safaricom just 'gives' competitors access to










their platform without them paying for it? Surely not...





















This is akin to you saying that now that Tesla has become dominant in










Electric Cars they should give up their technology to those










Neanderthals in










Detroit (GM, Ford etc) simply because they slept through the










revolution.










Literally.





















I'd agree with you on this principle if you said that it makes very










good strategic sense for them to open up Mpesa as a Platform. That is










something I think that Safaricom will regret if they don't. But then










it's










their prerogative.





















*Ali Hussein*










*Principal*










*Hussein & Associates*










+254 0713 601113 <+254%20713%20601113>





















Twitter: @AliHKassim





















Skype: abu-jomo





















LinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin.com/in/ alihkassim





















"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act










but










a habit."  ~ Aristotle
































Sent from my iPad





















On 30 Jan 2017, at 10:58 AM, Job Muriuki via kictanet <










kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:





















Ngigi,





















It's like you are reading from the same script as I am. I have never










understood why we can't use Mpesa on any other number other than a










Safaricom one.










If Airtel, et al got access to the M-pesa platform then the tale would










be very different. As long as Safaricom has exclusivity access to










M-pesa the rest will have an uphill task in making any headways in the










telecom market in Kenya.
































Regards,










Job Muriuki,





















Skype: heviejob






















































On Mon, Jan 30, 2017 at 10:38 AM, Brian Munyao Longwe via kictanet <










kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:






















.....and the way CA (formerly CCK) were hammered when they tried to












do












a market intervention on the basis of Safaricom dominance....SMH....

























On Mon, Jan 30, 2017 at 9:20 AM, Ngigi Waithaka via kictanet <












kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:


























Ali,





























Analyzing why Safaricom has dominated this market in such Key areas














as Mobile Telephony, Payment Services etc is probably something that














would














qualify for a PHD thesis.





























Here's what I know though:














1. Are Safaricom's Customers happy? Answer is, do they have a














choice?














Go back to Microsoft's heyday, were you actually really happy with














Windows














'98? Did you have a *choice*?





























2. Yes, Safaricom could have better services than Airtel & Telkom,














although I doubt, having been a user of both Safaricom & Airtel over














15yrs.














Even if they were better, how do you reconcile that they are maybe 4














times














the size of the rest of the competition? Are they 4x better than say














Airtel? I doubt.





























Now, onto things MPesa, I think Safaricom does MPesa a great














injustice of not spinning it off. I want MPesa (with all its














associated














services) on my Airtel line.





























MPesa needs to be listed on NASDAQ! MPesa needs to be the third














choice globally after VISA & Mastercard!





























But there's the not so small matter of who actually owns MPesa!





























Onto matters regulation, if I was CBK, I would be very concerned if














one such firm had that much 'power' over the money transfer market.





























Rgds





























On Mon, Jan 30, 2017 at 9:10 AM, Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke>














wrote:






























Ngigi

































:-)

































The issue of Mobitelea aside (because we will really never know how
















that went down) Safaricom is simply better at everything:-

































1. Their lobbying is simply superior and a thing of beauty to
















watch.
















Lobbying is an acceptable practice the world over. Please don't
















complain
















when your competitor is doing a better job at it than you..

































2. Which industry is Safaricom in? Energy? (Mkopa Solar with 500k
















subscribers simply won't have existed without the symbiotic
















relationship
















they have with Mpesa. And Safaricom skims off the top as per
















agreement);
















Banking? CBA without Mshwari is a shell; Payments?  Lipa na Mpesa is
















giving
















Visa and Mastercard a run for their money; TV? Zuku is about to feel
















real
















competition. And the list goes on.

































3. I'm keen to see the Dominance Report because I think we need to
















expand our thinking. I don't believe there is anyone today who has
















Dominance in any particular area at least not in the traditional way
















we
















have defined Dominance.

































4. The thing of course to watch is abuse of Market Dominance.  And
















this in itself a slippery slop. Once The US Government tried to
















break up
















Microsoft. What the Government couldn't do the Market did. Free
















Markets are
















the greatest equalizer.

































Let us be careful what we wish for. In as long as the customer is
















generally happy we have nothing to fear.

































*Ali Hussein*
















*Principal*
















*Hussein & Associates*
















+254 0713 601113 <+254%20713%20601113>

































Twitter: @AliHKassim

































Skype: abu-jomo

































LinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin.com/in/ alihkassim

































"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act
















but a habit."  ~ Aristotle


















































Sent from my iPad

































On 30 Jan 2017, at 8:29 AM, Ngigi Waithaka <ngigi at at.co.ke> wrote:

































Ali,

































The only palatable End Game; Equitel buys off Airtel Kenya,
















combines
















it with Helios stake @Telkom

































Massive innovation thereafter would get back some respectable
















market
















share.

































Truth be told, Safaricom's cozzyiness with GoK has helped it along
















big time. I dare say if Kencell has ceded 10% to Mobitelea, as
















Safaricom
















was more than glad to do, we'd probably be speaking a different
















story right
















now!

































What these foreign firms investing in Africa need to remember
















is.......

































THIS IS AFRICA!
















On 28 Jan 2017 8:40 a.m., "Ali Hussein via kictanet" <
















kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke> wrote:


































Listers





































Another one bites the dust?





































I'm really curious as to whats going on in the Telco sector.





































Bharti Airtel has announced that it will be exiting 14 African


















countries within a year. The affected countries include: Chad,


















Congo,


















Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda,


















Seychelles, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.





































The telecom operator is faced with poor performance across those


















markets. Two years ago, when Airtel began talks to sell off its


















operations in Burkina Faso, Chad, Congo Brazzaville and Sierra


















Leone to


















Orange


















<http://mobilityarena.com/ airtel-not-exiting-africa- despite-talks-to-sell-4- networks-to-orange/>,


















the company had stated that it wouldn’t be exiting Africa.


















Airtel plans Africa exit


















<http://mobilityarena.com/ airtel-exit-nigeria-13- african-countries/>





































Is the African market too competitive or is the regulatory


















environment skewed towards a few players?





































*Ali Hussein*





































*Principal*





































*Hussein & Associates*











































































Tel: +254 713 601113





































Twitter: @AliHKassim





































Skype: abu-jomo





































LinkedIn: http://ke.linkedin.com/in/ alihkassim


















<http://ke.linkedin.com/in/ alihkassim>
























































13th Floor , Delta Towers, Oracle Wing,





































Chiromo Road, Westlands,





































Nairobi, Kenya.





































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organizations that I work with.





































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regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT








sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and








development.

















KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors








online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and








bandwidth,








share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy,








do








not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.





































--






*Regards,*













*Wait**haka Ngigi*






Chief Executive Officer | Alliance Technologies | MCK Nairobi Synod






Building






T +254 20 525 0750 |Office Mobile: +254 716 201061 <+254%20716%20201061>






| M +254 737 811 000






www.at.co.ke













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The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform






for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and






regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT






sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and






development.













KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors






online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and






bandwidth,






share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy,






do






not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.



























--




Beryl




****************************** *****************




 Darkness cannot put out the Light. It can only make God brighter.




—Author




Unknown.



















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Unsubscribe or change your options at https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/




mailman/options/kictanet/ blongwe%40gmail.com









The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform




for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and




regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT




sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and




development.









KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors




online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and




bandwidth,




share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do




not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.












-- 
Barrack O. Otieno
+254721325277
+254733206359
Skype: barrack.otieno
PGP ID: 0x2611D86A

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The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.

KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.

______________________________ _________________
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The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.

KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.




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The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.

KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.

   
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