[kictanet] [mediaeditors] Safaricom's Super Profits

[Kivuva]

The profits are generated through "willing seller, willing buyer ".

But the pricing is ridiculous for both Voice, Data, and MPESA charges.

On 20 May 2013 10:44, Edith Adera <eadera at idrc.ca> wrote:

>  Mark,****
>
> ** **
>
> You’re missing the point! In the bigger scheme of things, there are some
> market imperfections that need to be addressed too.****
>
> ** **
>
> Edith****
>
> ** **
>
> *From:* kictanet [mailto:kictanet-bounces+eadera=
> idrc.ca at lists.kictanet.or.ke] *On Behalf Of *Mark Mwangi
> *Sent:* May 20, 2013 10:09 AM
> *To:* Edith Adera
> *Cc:* KICTAnet - Media Editors Forum; Christoph Stork;
> kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke
>
> *Subject:* Re: [kictanet] [mediaeditors] Safaricom's Super Profits****
>
> ** **
>
> I am very wary of the attack on Safaricoms profits which were earned fair
> and square. As I recall, the former owners of Airtel, Zain and Celtel
> embarked on covering the largest section of the public with the most
> ubiquitous network. Orange have been getting government bailouts every
> other year including being given NOFBI which they have been sitting on.
> They are also the official iPhone agents and I am yet to see any kenyan app
> on the apple App Store that Orange is pushing. The competitors thus have
> clear advantages that they can leverage to profit but they dont. Safaricom
> should be punished for this?****
>
> ** **
>
> That Safaricom is the dominant player is not in contention but hiving off
> the business they have earned to mediocre competitors is not a solution.
> Maybe get the government to buy up more shares hence have bigger say but
> not stifling innovation. I rarely use Safaricom's services because I simply
> cant afford them but They are the best in class. ****
>
> ** **
>
> New technologies are not new needs or expectations. There is a demand for
> internet services. how it is delivered is the least of the consumers
> concern hence the blowing up of mobile internet. The issue of each company
> digging their own fiber cable is honestly a local government problem. Why
> do they allow it? Is Kenya power and Nairobi water allowed to dig anywhere
> and pass live cables or sewage? Why is fiber treated differently from other
> utilities?****
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> On Sun, May 19, 2013 at 7:11 AM, Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke> wrote:***
> *
>
> Alison and all****
>
> ** **
>
> Interesting insights and discussions. ****
>
> ** **
>
> Incumbency here in Kenya would be Telkom Kenya. Even with the financial
> muscle of France Telkom they were unable to exploit their legacy
> infrastructure and role out high speed Internet ubiquitously across the
> country. In fact I would even go one step further and say that despite
> Government 'Favoritism' giving them the management of the National Optic
> Fibre Infrastructure (NOFBI) what has come of it?****
>
> ** **
>
> There is definitely a bigger role to play from a regulation perspective.
> One of the issues that are really critical to broadband penetration in
> Kenya I believe is the fact that regulation hasn't done enough to 'force'
> players in the telco industry to share infrastructure. This list has
> discussed at length the seemingly ludicrous behavior of MSPs and ISPs
> individually digging up our streets to lay fibre where they could have
> collaborated and possibly done more for the investment they have. Now if
> this is not regulated properly we will wake up one day and realize the
> country's information superhighway is owned by one or two players. What
> would happen if one infrastructure company owned all the roads in the
> country and decided who should or should not drive a car on them? Isn't
> that what this is? ****
>
> ** **
>
> Disruption of markets happen when players offer something that is so
> uniquely compelling that the competition is left gasping for breath.****
>
> ** **
>
> In the banking sector Equity disrupted the whole cushy and fat banking
> industry who had no clue of the value awaiting to be mined from the Bottom
> of the Pyramid. Hardly had that settled down did Mpesa come and threatened
> to disrupt Equity Bank. Equity has rapidly evolved to counter this with
> sleek mobile banking offerings. Commercial Bank of Kenya stepped up and
> partnering with Safaricom offered MShwari with startling results. Over Kshs
> 3 billion deposited in less than 3 months and 10% of that disbursed as
> loans, that fact alone debunked the myth of Kenya not being a saving
> country.****
>
> ** **
>
> My point is that we are living in a hyper and rapidly evolving environment
> that it would call for out of the box and in the box thinking to create an
> environment that will push Africa in general and Kenya in particular to a
> level of development and prosperity never heard of before. It would take
> visionary leaders to embrace the concept of the private for profit sector,
> non profit sector and governments working together unequivocally and
> selflessly to ensure that we have as perfect a market as possible in this
> sector. ****
>
> ** **
>
> And market disruptions will continue. Governments the world over are still
> grasping with a regulatory framework on how to deal with the new type of
> Monopoly - one willingly given by consumers and not governments -
> Google,with over 60% of the search market, Facebook with over a billion
> users on its platform, before the Internet disrupted the whole Operating
> System model Microsoft with over 90% of the market, now Google with its
> super successful Android mobile operating system which it gives for 'free'
> to hardware makers like Samsung, LG etc. I suspect the rule book for this
> type of regulation hasn't been written yet.****
>
> ** **
>
> Interesting times indeed!****
>
> ** **
>
> Ali Hussein****
>
> CEO | 3mice interactive media Ltd****
>
> Principal | Telemedia Africa Ltd****
>
> ** **
>
> +254 713 601113****
>
> ** **
>
> "The future belongs to him who knows how to wait." - Russian Proverb****
>
> ** **
>
> Sent from my iPad****
>
>
> On May 18, 2013, at 10:58 PM, Grace Githaiga <ggithaiga at hotmail.com>
> wrote:****
>
>   @ Edith+ 1 .****
>  ------------------------------
>
> From: eadera at idrc.ca
> Date: Sat, 18 May 2013 19:52:20 +0000
> Subject: Re: [kictanet] [mediaeditors] Safaricom's Super Profits
> CC: mediaeditors at lists.kictanet.or.ke; christoph.stork at googlemail.com;
> kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke
> To: ggithaiga at hotmail.com****
>
> Alison,****
>
>  ****
>
> This provides some interesting insights. To what extent is consumer
> behaviour a factor in the equation here? Kenyans seem to be very peculiar.
> For e.g. the Ghanaian market seems to have different consumer behaviour
> resulting in very vibrant tariff offerings lowering prices compared to
> Kenya and consumers move to other networks when unsatisfied, we simply
> don’t, why? So in Ghana you have MSPs tripping over each other offering all
> sorts of incentives – so you have a semblance of true competition. I wonder
> what your RIA results for Ghana show over the past decade?****
>
>  ****
>
> RIA may want to explore a qualitative study (if you haven’t already done
> so) to accompany your current analysis to explain the numbers and trends
> with a human face.****
>
>  ****
>
> Indeed, I look forward to the results of your study on Kenya (with some
> comparative analysis)  and the face2face interaction. I do hope you will
> have a structured debate on KICTANET once you study results are out.****
>
>  ****
>
> Edith****
>
>  ****
>
> *From:* Alison Gillwald [mailto:agillwald at researchictafrica.net<agillwald at researchictafrica.net>]
>
> *Sent:* May 18, 2013 10:11 PM
> *To:* Ali Hussein
> *Cc:* Edith Adera; KICTAnet - Media Editors Forum; alice at apc.org Munyua;
> Christoph Stork; KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions; Margaret Nyambura
> *Subject:* Re: [kictanet] [mediaeditors] Safaricom's Super Profits****
>
>  ****
>
> Interesting discussion!****
>
>  ****
>
> In response to Ali's comments I would point out that infrastructure
> industries are by nature imperfect markets because of the bottleneck
> facilities or natural monopoly elements  in them. That is why we need
> effective regulation of them.  It is true that privatisation turned the old
> PSTN  around, but it was also able to exploit its incumbency.  The
> dominance of historical incumbents of the backbone facilities or even  just
> the significant market power that Safaricom has leveraged off that  in the
> mobile market makes it very difficult to compete in any of these markets,
> especially when Safaricom is able further to leverage its scale in the
> marker to extend it scope with new services and applications  - especially
> killer applications such as Mpesa, as mentioned -  and not very attractive
> for new market entrants. ****
>
>  ****
>
> Competitors really require their  strategies to be disruptive if they are
> going to succeed in such entrenched markets, but even then this is very
> difficult as it requires the competitor to do something that the dominant
> operator cannot simply emulate.  Celtel/Zain tried this with the one
> network, which was good for consumers in that it ended roaming charges
> across East Africa (and indeed their extended networks into central and
> west Africa) and had it worked might have given Zain's mobile money
> offering at the time the step up it needed to compete in the early days of
> Mpesa, but Safaricom responded to this threat by joining forces with the
> dominant operators in Uganda and Tanzania to offer free roaming across
> their networks  and the rest, as they say, is history. ****
>
>  ****
>
> Bharti Airtel tried to disrupt the market with  its low cost mobile
> business model across its African markets as it had done successfully in
> India, but even the significant call termination (monopoly element) rate
> reductions did not enable it to do so (and the moratorium on rate
> reductions did not help). Yet our RIA data shows that although Safaricom's
> mobile prices remain the most expensive, there has been considerable
> competitive pressure on them and they have reduced their prices
> significantly during the period of the glide path. And though there
> marketshare is marginally down, their traffic and profits are up (despite
> all the complaining)! (In Nigeria as someone mentioned, MTN's dominance of
> the market and pricing, without as significant interconnection regulation,
> has not been shaken at all and Airtel has not been able to disrupt that
> market with their low cost mobile model and is now very marginal there,
> while MTN  too enjoys super-profits).****
>
>  ****
>
> On that score, I don't think super-profits of dominant players send
> positive signal to investors in regulated 'competitive' markets, especially
> if some players are close to exiting the market. I think it sends messages
> that the regulator or competition authority are not able to adjust the
> dominant ( possibly anti-competitive) behaviour of the incumbent and create
> a level playing field for new entrants for them to see a return on the
> investments within a reasonable period. ****
>
>  ****
>
> And all that being said, what we are seeing  in our analysis of price
> trends is a need to examine voice and data offering and pricing in relation
> to each other... in South Africa for example MTN has not entered into the
> price war on voice (other than through MTN zone, but their standard rates
> remain unchanged, while Vodacom is trying to undercut, CellC and 8ta)  but
> they are very competitive on their data offerings, and their revenues
> streams are showing this - but of course even this is very difficult to
> measure externally as people are buying airtime for voice and loading it
> for data. We are working with our Kenyan network partners on an analysis on
> voice and data prices and regulatory implications, which they will be
> releasing shortly and should shed some light on this.****
>
>  ****
>
> And just to add that the regulator can only do what it can do in terms of
> implementing the law. If the solution lies in increasing competition (which
> probably won't address Safaricom's dominance on its own) or structural
> separation of the incumbent  into a open access common carrier, with
> separate service offering,  which is more likely to - but would raise all
> the risk of dismantling the economies of scope and scale (with the
> associated nework effects) of vertical integration that  has enabled
> Safaricom's  success  in offering high value services to consumers  - then
> policy makers will need to act, not the regulator (though they if they have
> a view I guess they could be more active in advising Government).****
>
>  ****
>
> Enough.****
>
> Alison****
>
>  ****
>
> *Alison Gillwald (PhD) l Executive Director: Research ICT Africa l 409
> The Studios, Old Castle Brewery, 6 Beach Road, Woodstock, Cape Town 7925l l
> Tel: +27 21 4476332 Fax: +27 21 4479529  l  Box 228, Green Point 8051 l **
> ***
>
> *Adjunct Professor UCT Graduate School of Business, Management of
> Infrastructure Reform and Regulation.*****
>
>  ****
>
> *See **www.researchICTafrica.net* <http://www.researchICTafrica.net/>* for
> details on latest publications*****
>
> ** **
>
>  ****
>
>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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>  ****
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> ** **
>
>  ****
>
> On 18 May 2013, at 7:14 PM, Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke> wrote:****
>
>  ****
>
> Edith****
>
>  ****
>
> I don't believe this is a case only for the regulator. What happens when
> in a few years a new player becomes dominant again? The market isn't
> perfect but its the best we have. ****
>
>  ****
>
> Regulation is part of this equation. But I don't think it should be used
> to break up companies or restrict them from operating because the
> competition proved too weak to compete.****
>
>  ****
>
> What do we think the monopolies commission in this country will do? Do we
> have any example of what they have done to curb so called monopolies?****
>
>  ****
>
> I'm not really so sure that this is a mandate of CCK to deal with. ****
>
>  ****
>
> How does the CCK enhance competition? In this I think CCK is executing as
> well as they can. It is now upon the market to correct the inconsistencies
> and inefficiencies. ****
>
>  ****
>
> In my unfinished post I meant to say for every Microsoft there is a Google
> lurking somewhere. What regulation and Government fails to correct the
> market surely will. ****
>
>  ****
>
> Have we forgotten that Kencell at some point was leading the market and
> thought that the mobile phone was only for the elite? That Safaricom was
> part of the KP&TC (for those of you who don't remember that's Kenya Posts &
> Telecommunications Corporation) and that if you wanted a top up you had to
> go to a *hole in the wall* at Telecoms House to pay and then wait for a
> few hours for the airtime to be updated to your phone? ****
>
>  ****
>
> Safaricom was unleashed through privatization and reinvented itself.
> Another one is lurking in the corner to eat Safaricom's lunch and that I
> will bet will not be any government regulation. It will be you and me who
> will finally vote with our wallets when we finally get a better
> alternative. ****
>
>  ****
>
> Meanwhile, we continue to suffer - but clearly not in silence. :)****
>
>  ****
>
> Ali Hussein****
>
> CEO | 3mice interactive media Ltd****
>
> Principal | Telemedia Africa Ltd****
>
>  ****
>
> +254 713 601113****
>
> ** **
>
> "The future belongs to him who knows how to wait." - Russian Proverb****
>
>  ****
>
> Sent from my iPad****
>
>
> On May 18, 2013, at 7:33 PM, Edith Adera <eadera at idrc.ca> wrote:****
>
> Well articulated Walu!!****
>
>  ****
>
> Time to hear from CCK? Wangusi? Matano and co?****
>
>  ****
>
> Edith****
>
>  ****
>
> *From:* kictanet [
> mailto:kictanet-bounces+eadera=idrc.ca at lists.kictanet.or.ke<kictanet-bounces+eadera=idrc.ca at lists.kictanet.or.ke>]
> *On Behalf Of *Walubengo J
> *Sent:* May 18, 2013 5:20 PM
> *To:* Edith Adera
> *Cc:* KICTAnet - Media Editors Forum; Christoph Stork; Alison Gillwald;
> KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions
> *Subject:* Re: [kictanet] [mediaeditors] Safaricom's Super Profits****
>
>  ****
>
> True that, Ali,
>
> I also share your view in that ill-informed Regulatory intervention can
> cause more problems than what it expects to solve. For example, I would be
> uncomfortable with CCK slapping the internet market with Price controls
> similar to what we are seeing in the Energy sector.  This could be
> counterproductive since the investors in the telco industry may suddenly
> feel the sector is no longer attractive.
>
> What I expect the Regulator to do instead is to enhance competition -
> which obviously exists only on paper - given Safaricom close to 75% market
> share. I recall the former Safcom CEO, MJ saying they should not be
> punished for working their way to the top of the industry but still dissect
> the implications of a dominant, almost monopolistic player to the overall
> economy.
>
> Perfect competition is known to have the highest social dividend in that
> users can move freely between suppliers, suppliers compete on price and so
> must be extremely efficient in their operations by being innovative, the
> move to the untapped markets (the unconnected) etc. A monopoly tends to do
> the opposite and dictates pricing since it knows you are going nowhere...
>
> Am really not sure what the Regulator should do to fix a market failure -
> which I think is what we have in the internet sector. But that is why we
> pay the DG and his Directors good money to tell us what they intend to do
> or are already doing to address this elephant in room.
>
> walu.****
>
>  ****
>
>  ****
>    ------------------------------
>
> *From:* Ali Hussein <ali at hussein.me.ke>
> *To:* jwalu at yahoo.com
> *Cc:* KICTAnet - Media Editors Forum <mediaeditors at lists.kictanet.or.ke>;
> Christoph Stork <christoph.stork at googlemail.com>; Alison Gillwald <
> agillwald at researchictafrica.net>; KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <
> kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
> *Sent:* Saturday, May 18, 2013 2:41 PM
> *Subject:* Re: [kictanet] [mediaeditors] Safaricom's Super Profits****
>
>  ****
>
> Edith and all****
>
>  ****
>
> Super profits and all I think that Safaricom is reaping from a field where
> others are blind (the analogy bring that it is the one eyed king).****
>
>  ****
>
> Safaricom is definitely extremely sensitive to product innovation and
> working towards engaging their customers more. However my suspicion is that
> they haven't even started scratching the surface. Quality issues aside if
> they really really started monetizing their most critical asset (real time
> customer information and habits) and started putting them to use they will
> easily double the super profits.****
>
>  ****
>
> Safaricom is 'suffering' from the Network effect. Loosely defined is the
> lethargy and lack of incentive for customers like you and I to move to
> another network even as we complain about it's arrogance. They have been so
> successful in keeping you in their gilded garden that for you to move means
> that you are literally pushing yourself out of n ecosystem that works
> reasonably week.****
>
>  ****
>
> I'm not sure whether this is a regulator issue as it is a Market issue. Or
> maybe a combination of both? That is a case study waiting to be written.
> The history of regulation is littered with Governments attempts and
> ultimate failure to break up monopolies created not out of Government
> action but by sheer entrepreneurial and management chops. Cases that come
> to mind include:-****
>
>  ****
>
> 1. The Anti Trust Laws of the late 1890s in the US that broke up Standard
> Oil into bits and pieces. It took less than 50 years for the offspring of
> that juggernaut to dominate again.****
>
>  ****
>
> 2. The attempted and almost successful break up of Microsoft by
> Government. It took the market to make Microsoft irrelevant. Google,
> Facebook, Amazon anyone?****
>
>  ****
>
> 3. Recent noi****
>
>  ****
>
> Ali Hussein****
>
> CEO | 3mice interactive media Ltd****
>
> Principal | Telemedia Africa Ltd****
>
>  ****
>
> +254 713 601113****
>
>  ****
>
> "The future belongs to him who knows how to wait." - Russian Proverb****
>
>  ****
>
> Sent from my iPad****
>
>
> On May 18, 2013, at 1:23 PM, otieno.barrack at gmail.com wrote:****
>
>  + 1 Walu,
> Speaking from an Internet Society perspective whose mission statement is
> the Internet for all, I think the Universal Access fund has to be used to
> create the right balance, I think too many Telcos are focusing on slicing
> Safaricoms Market share instead of venturing into the untapped and
> unprofitable market segments in the Bundu's, IMHO, therein lies the
> problem, we want to see whether the Universal Access fund board itasema, na
> itende.
>
> Best Regards
> Sent from my BlackBerry®
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Walubengo J <jwalu at yahoo.com>
> Sender: "kictanet"
> <kictanet-bounces+otieno.barrack=gmail.com at lists.kictanet.or.ke>Date:
> Sat, 18 May 2013 03:16:11
> To: <otieno.barrack at gmail.com>
> Reply-To: Walubengo J <jwalu at yahoo.com>
> Cc: KICTAnet - Media Editors Forum<mediaeditors at lists.kictanet.or.ke>;
> Christoph Stork<christoph.stork at googlemail.com>; Alison Gillwald<
> agillwald at researchictafrica.net>; KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<
> kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
> Subject: Re: [kictanet] [mediaeditors]  Safaricom's Super Profits
>
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> for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and
> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT
> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.
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> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors
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> for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and
> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT
> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.
>
> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors
> online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth,
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> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform
> for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and
> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT
> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.
>
> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors
> online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth,
> share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do
> not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.
>



-- 
______________________
Mwendwa Kivuva
For
twitter.com/lordmwesh
www.transworldAfrica.com  | Fluent in computing
kenya.or.ke | The Kenya we know
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