[kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving KnowledgeEconomy?OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo

[bitange at jambo.co.ke]

David,
Please ask the Planner to watch the movie "Field of Dreams" Earl Jones said "Build it, they will come".  In Kenya electricity is only accessible to 15% of the population.  This means there is bent up demand that is usually factored in predictive models.

There in no single predictive model that can give you a perfect trajectory.  I am sure he will agree with me that there is not one single middle income country that has below 40,000 MW.  Trust me in this.  I pray that God gives us good life to see what I saying.


Ndemo.

Sent from my BlackBerry®

-----Original Message-----
From: David Otwoma <otwomad at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2011 15:40:54 
To: <bitange at jambo.co.ke>
Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
Subject: Re: [kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving Knowledge
 Economy?OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo

Dear Dr. Ndemo,

One of my Energy Planners has the below lines to say as concerns your post....

First I wish to agree with him that the current reserve capacity is
inadequate. I did an analysis recently covering Jan-Jun 2011 and
concluded that we require 42% reserve capacity to take care of planned
and unplanned outages, and also the hydro risks especially now that
the droughts are recurrent and yet our power systems is over 50%
hydro. I also support the need to avail capacity ahead of demand in
order to encourage investments.

I however beg to differ on the issue of demand forecasting models. We
have consistently produced credible projections and proposed
additional generation projects in our least cost plan over the last
decade. For instance the latest LCPDP has a higher projection for this
year than the current actual demand. The current peak is 1194MW
recorded in May 2011 while the projected peak for 2010/11 was 1302MW,
and the reserve capacity in the LCPDP for the medium term is about
33%. Our forecast demand for 2030 is 15,000MW while the installed
capacity will be over 19,000MW. High reserve capacity has a cost and
should be traded after interconnection with other countries in the
region to avoid passing the high cost to consumers, otherwise it would
have to be developed and paid for by Government. The most important
task for now is to implement recommended power generation projects,
regardless of the forecasting tool we use.  We should also strive to
climate-proof our system.

In terms of planners, I think we have good capacity and suitable tools
for the work, and we shall continue to enhance our capacity.

.........There you have it from our own home grown expert.

My closing remarks in support of my planner is that Energy Planning is
not the same as predicting the future but it aims to analyze different
futures. Since no analysis is perfect we need to reasonably introduce
many more “what if” questions that we should explore. When new
information is availed previously plausible assumption would no longer
stand the test of time.....and hence Energy Planning never ends…..

Kind regards na pole kwa msiba.

David

On 8/5/11, bitange at jambo.co.ke <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
> David,
> Let us discard the current models of projecting energy needs.  This is
> because of several exogeneous variables that are not taken into
> consideration.
>
> For example, tier 4 data center energy requirement is 50 MW.  We are bulding
> more than 10 in the next few years.  Some three years ago I said we needed
> double current capacity then but my request was dismissed as a dream.  By
> 2015 we need at lest 5,000 MW if we implement the industrialization plan.
>
> For serious investors to consider Kenya as an investment destination, we
> must be having at least 50% excess capacity.  You have seen what happens
> when we operate at less than 10% excess capacity.
>
> These are facts.  We must get down to seriously addressing this problem.
>
> Ndemo.
>
>
> Sent from my BlackBerry®
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: David Otwoma <otwomad at gmail.com>
> Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2011 11:45:35
> To: <bitange at jambo.co.ke>
> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
> Subject: Re: [kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving Knowledge Economy?
>  OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo
>
> Dear Dr. Ndemo,
>
> It is true the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) of 2011 t0
> 2031 aims at above 18,000 MW generation capacity, the 2010 to 2030 had
> less than 18,000 MW, while that of 2009 to 2029 was below 15,000 MW.
> This (2011-2031) was the 4th LCPDP and preparations for the next (2012
> to 2032) is underway. It has room for upward projections as we are now
> aware that while GDP may grow at 5%, growth for electricity supply
> should be 8% (conservative i.e. KenGen figures) to 12% (realistic i.e.
> KAM figures)
>
> In S. Africa as of 2010, ESKOM, with a generating capacity of 38 200
> MW from 20 power stations, is one of the largest utilities in the
> world, and generated approximately 98% of South Africa's electricity.
> Generation was primarily coal-fired, but also includes two nuclear
> power stations at Koeberg (1,950 MW), two gas turbine facilities, two
> conventional hydroelectric plants, and two hydroelectric
> pumped-storage stations. Despite the above, demand exceeded supply
> capacity, and South African power exports have already been restricted
> and hence all projects planned by the South African Power Pool ground
> to a halt 3 years ago. S. Africa plans to bring onto its grid 9.600 MW
> from nuclear power by 2030. Best lesson is that a country will look
> internally first before reaching out when faced with a bad situation.
> Kenya could borrow a leaf here!
>
> In contrast to S. Africa, Germany had installed electricity generating
> capacity of 120, 000 MW (100 times Kenya's current capacity). From
> this Germany produced 566.9 billion kilowatt-hours (Bkwh) and consumed
> 524.6 Bwkh of electric power. The largest share of this production (61
> percent) came from conventional thermal sources (burning own and
> imported coal), followed by nuclear (28 percent), and other renewables
> (7 percent from mainly wind). Germany has an active electricity trade
> with neighboring countries, though it is usually a net exporter,
> Germany’s electricity grid industry association reported that the
> country exported 34.5 Bkwh of electric power while importing 22.4
> Bkwh.  Germany being an electricity secure country it can afford to
> export, it can shut down its nuclear power plants and remain
> sufficient, and it does not have a history of using emergency diesel
> generators to supply electricity to consumers! Kenya could also borrow
> from that nationalism aspect as emergency power enriches a few at the
> expense of multitudes!
>
> Ni hayo tuuu.
>
> Enjoy your Furahi day all.
>
> Kind regards,
>
> David
>
> On 8/4/11, bitange at jambo.co.ke <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
>> David,
>> Thank you. The following statement worries me:
>> Least Cost Power Development Plan which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to
>> have in excess of 18,000 MW.
>>
>> There is no medium income country in the world that has less than 40,000
>> MW.  If by 2030 we want to be a medium income country, we must aim at
>> 50,000.  Just look at South Africa with 45,000 and still experiencing
>> power outages.
>>
>>
>> Regards
>>
>>
>> Ndemo.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>> Dear Dr. Ndemo,
>>>
>>>> 4. This energy thing is critical.  The technology on Coal has greatly
>>>> improved that you can have clean coal.  We must at least do 5,000 MW
>>>> from
>>>> this source for us to catch up.  We also must step up geothermal to
>>>> fully
>>>> exploit the green energy available.  In Northern Kenya we can use wind
>>>> energy since it is naturally available.
>>>
>>> On the outset your plan to put 50% on agriculture and 40% on
>>> manufacturing is spot on.
>>>
>>> My interest here is to enlighten you on energy, if you allow. Lets
>>> start with a story. 14 years ago while in Hungary I learnt that they
>>> generated more than 45% of their electricity from nuclear power plants
>>> and it was the duty of the government to install electricity in any
>>> habitable home (where human beings were living and residing in). For
>>> return and appreciation the citizen so provided with electricity paid
>>> per month an equivalent of a loaf of bread! If now less than kshs. 50.
>>>
>>> That aside on the caption above. V2030 is a non starter without
>>> affordable, quality and sufficient electricity which currently
>>> constitutes wood fuel and other biomass accounting for about 68% of
>>> the total primary energy consumption followed by petroleum at 22%,
>>> electricity at 9% and others including coal at about less than 1%.
>>> Solar energy is extensively used for drying and to some extent for
>>> heating and lighting, the latter mainly by middle class Kenyans.
>>>
>>> On electricity alone, we have the Least Cost Power Development Plan
>>> which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to have in excess of 18,000 MW of
>>> which nuclear share will be 4,000 MW. We have geothermal potential of
>>> 7,000 MW and hence assuming we step up its utilization from the
>>> current 210 MW we would still have a shortfall on the aim of
>>> generating 18,000 MW. Our coal may give us 2,000 MW. To increase we
>>> would have to import coal and hence aim having coal powered coal
>>> plants at the coast. Its true technologies for clean coal burning are
>>> available but the moment you apply them cost of electricity production
>>> goes higher and hence it (coal) loses its competitiveness against
>>> nuclear and burning oil. All countries on earth that have
>>> industrialized burnt gas, oil, coal and utilized nuclear for base load
>>> i.e. 24/7 all year round assured ,quality and sustained availability
>>> of electricity.
>>>
>>> Wind, solar and hydro although cheaper in the short term they are not
>>> available throughout, and hence are not reliable for industrial needs
>>> (but they can go a long way in peaking arrangement i.e. taking the
>>> load off the grid when used in households, offices that are
>>> constructed in future enabling utilization of natural lighting and
>>> installing solar panels etc.).
>>>
>>> Imagine a nuclear power plant at Isiolo (or there abouts). With cheap
>>> electricity one can pump water from Arthi and Tana river in the former
>>> North Eastern Province and irrigate land; produce from the farming
>>> would enable good health from eating well and setting of value
>>> addition industries meeting your aim of 50% on agriculture and 40% on
>>> manufacturing.\
>>>
>>> Currently electrification rate in Kenya is 15% (47% in Nairobi and
>>> less than 2% in most rural Kenya), 50% in Cameroon and Nigeria, 65% in
>>> Ghana, 70% in South Africa, 98% in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria
>>> and Libya! We need to stop comparing our electrification rate with
>>> Somali, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi who are all below 15%!
>>>
>>> Kind regards,
>>>
>>> David
>>>
>>>
>>> On 8/4/11, bitange at jambo.co.ke <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
>>>> Collins,
>>>> 1. We are in the same boat with strong winds.  I am simply saying what
>>>> many people have said and we did not listen.  In 1989 I made a proposal
>>>> to
>>>> the Kenya Government on how we could independent.  The highlights of
>>>> the
>>>> proposal was to focus on modernizing agriculture through mechanization
>>>> and
>>>> setting aside large tracks of land where we could take advantage of
>>>> economies of scale.  I said our future food security would be in threat
>>>> due to climatic changes.  I said that land sub division should be
>>>> halted
>>>> and start rural urbanization to create land for agriculture. My thesis
>>>> then and now was that subsistence farming was undermining economic
>>>> growth.
>>>>
>>>> In my report I likened our situation with Switzerland.  Switzerland has
>>>> a
>>>> population of 8 million in an area of 15,940 square miles (size of
>>>> Central
>>>> Province of Kenya).  From here they it feeds her population and sends
>>>> the
>>>> surplus to Africa.  Further I said we were wasting a lot of money in
>>>> Tourism to entertain just a few people.
>>>>
>>>> You can prove me right today but then I spent my entire holiday moving
>>>> from one office to another trying to explain what would be a problem in
>>>> my
>>>> country.  Eventually I sat down with the then Director of Political
>>>> Affairs in the Ministry of Foreugn Affairs.  He simply told me "young
>>>> man
>>>> you can go back to your USA here you are going to waste your time".
>>>>
>>>> 2. We are all creative in a way and really thank you for supporting my
>>>> "candidacy".
>>>>
>>>> 3. 50% on agriculture then 40% manufacturing.  ICT does not need a lot
>>>> of
>>>> money to implement.  On average most countries spend 6% of their annual
>>>> budget on ICTs.
>>>>
>>>> 4. This energy thing is critical.  The technology on Coal has greatly
>>>> improved that you can have clean coal.  We must at least do 5,000 MW
>>>> from
>>>> this source for us to catch up.  We also must step up geothermal to
>>>> fully
>>>> exploit the green energy available.  In Northern Kenya we can use wind
>>>> energy since it is naturally available.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Regards
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Ndemo.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> 1: Ill jump into this albeit late and begin with a reference to a
>>>>> scriptural
>>>>> parable of the talents in Matthew 25. The moral being that to whom
>>>>> much
>>>>> is
>>>>> given, much is expected and the converse being true. as a rhetorical
>>>>> question (you can answer if you like), have you made maximum use of
>>>>> the
>>>>> two
>>>>> talents you were given to deserve three in round two.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2: It is indeed a positive thing that you would even consider a Ndemo
>>>>> Tosha
>>>>> because in the bigger picture of things, it would be a definate
>>>>> improvement
>>>>> from the status quo. I like that you have Ideas and visions about what
>>>>> can
>>>>> be needed to solve what, ICT indeed might be the holy grail in
>>>>> improving
>>>>> process and equalizing a lot of the bumps that are exploited by
>>>>> uncreative
>>>>> Kenyans for profit.
>>>>>
>>>>> 3: Onto my questions: Between Agriculture, ICT, Infrastructure and
>>>>> Manufacturing, how would you allocate say theoretically a 1trillion
>>>>> budget
>>>>> (just for these) and what would be the justification for leaning to
>>>>> which.
>>>>> The devil would be in the details but a rough estimate would show
>>>>> direction.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> 4: Mention something about a) somalia, b) Southern sudan, c) EPAs and
>>>>> d)
>>>>> Kyoto viz a viz cheap energy.
>>>>>
>>>>> cheers...
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 11:31 AM, aki <aki275 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Thank you Dr Ndemo for the comments.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'd also like to add that govt policies and programs are the initial
>>>>>> catalyst drive because the private sector is what it is i.e. does not
>>>>>> fund
>>>>>> research or development ( not in Kenya ). And for many decades
>>>>>> economic
>>>>>> policies have placed favour over import versus local development, we
>>>>>> are
>>>>>> at
>>>>>> a stage today that it would probably takes us another 40-50 years to
>>>>>> even
>>>>>> design/produce the simplest semi-conductor available on the market
>>>>>> today.
>>>>>> The same design can be done at University levels in other countries.
>>>>>> We
>>>>>> are
>>>>>> really at a tough place because if we don't fast track with imports,
>>>>>> we
>>>>>> will
>>>>>> get left behind. And if we don't implement long term ways towards
>>>>>> core
>>>>>> development, we are bound to become literally a "sales,marketing
>>>>>> and consultants" country which only has very short term benefits.
>>>>>> Today,
>>>>>> we
>>>>>> give the chance to external partners to help with technology needs
>>>>>> and
>>>>>> systems, yet we are capable of creating or building upon these given
>>>>>> the
>>>>>> correct environment. It will be our biggest loss in future if we do
>>>>>> not
>>>>>> change course and take on the internal development segment with force
>>>>>> and
>>>>>> commitment. Just as the US identified itself as a major defense
>>>>>> exporter
>>>>>> economy thereby creating most of the advance
>>>>>> systems-engineers-mulit-million
>>>>>> dollar industries--highly educated employment, I think we also need
>>>>>> to
>>>>>> define what we want to do and how to get there.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Starting at Sciences is really good, but would you kindly add what
>>>>>> esle
>>>>>> would be the catalysts towards creating and sustaining internal
>>>>>> development?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Thank you.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 10:43 AM, <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Aki,
>>>>>>> You now can understand why we need to stop business and general
>>>>>>> degree
>>>>>>> programmes.  This is why we are more of traders than industrialists.
>>>>>>> I
>>>>>>> went to US for studies in the 1980's.  In 1987 I was President of
>>>>>>> International Students at the University of Minnesota.  We were
>>>>>>> 5,000
>>>>>>> foreign students in a student population of 120,000. The majority of
>>>>>>> students were from Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea.  Of the
>>>>>>> Asian
>>>>>>> students, 98% were in engineering courses the remaider were in
>>>>>>> creative
>>>>>>> art degree program.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> These countries became what we call Newly Industrialized Countries
>>>>>>> (NICs).
>>>>>>> In economic comparative terms, they were behind Kenya.  Today we buy
>>>>>>> everything from them.  They manufactured nothing then.  Infact we
>>>>>>> used
>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>> love at the Hyundai Ponny that was first manufactured by Koreans.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We now must remove all fees for any student enrolled in science and
>>>>>>> creative degree programs.  The rest can pay.  When we started
>>>>>>> producing
>>>>>>> more computer graduates, we started seeing application development
>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>> Kenya to the extent that the world has started to recognize.
>>>>>>> Similarly,
>>>>>>> if we indeed want to industrialize, we must move to science.  There
>>>>>>> are
>>>>>>> no
>>>>>>> options.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> India has just realized this and they are taking jobs from
>>>>>>> overheating
>>>>>>> China.  Our comparative advatange in this region is the human
>>>>>>> resource.
>>>>>>> Let us develop it, support it and guide it to the right direction.
>>>>>>> Regional influence is what will matter in the days to come. As such
>>>>>>> we
>>>>>>> must endeavor to see that Vision 2030 is realized in 2020.  This is
>>>>>>> possible.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Regards
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ndemo.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
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>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> *“The twentieth century has been characterized by three developments
>>>>> of
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>>>>> corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of
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>>>>>
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> --
> David Otwoma,
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