[kictanet] Bitange for President? Driving Knowledge Economy? OnlineInterview with PS Ndemo

Thu Aug 4 15:37:09 EAT 2011

Dear Dr. Ndemo,

> 4. This energy thing is critical.  The technology on Coal has greatly
> improved that you can have clean coal.  We must at least do 5,000 MW from
> this source for us to catch up.  We also must step up geothermal to fully
> exploit the green energy available.  In Northern Kenya we can use wind
> energy since it is naturally available.

On the outset your plan to put 50% on agriculture and 40% on
manufacturing is spot on.

My interest here is to enlighten you on energy, if you allow. Lets
start with a story. 14 years ago while in Hungary I learnt that they
generated more than 45% of their electricity from nuclear power plants
and it was the duty of the government to install electricity in any
habitable home (where human beings were living and residing in). For
return and appreciation the citizen so provided with electricity paid
per month an equivalent of a loaf of bread! If now less than kshs. 50.

That aside on the caption above. V2030 is a non starter without
affordable, quality and sufficient electricity which currently
constitutes wood fuel and other biomass accounting for about 68% of
the total primary energy consumption followed by petroleum at 22%,
electricity at 9% and others including coal at about less than 1%.
Solar energy is extensively used for drying and to some extent for
heating and lighting, the latter mainly by middle class Kenyans.

On electricity alone, we have the Least Cost Power Development Plan
which is its 2011-2031 outlook aims to have in excess of 18,000 MW of
which nuclear share will be 4,000 MW. We have geothermal potential of
7,000 MW and hence assuming we step up its utilization from the
current 210 MW we would still have a shortfall on the aim of
generating 18,000 MW. Our coal may give us 2,000 MW. To increase we
would have to import coal and hence aim having coal powered coal
plants at the coast. Its true technologies for clean coal burning are
available but the moment you apply them cost of electricity production
goes higher and hence it (coal) loses its competitiveness against
nuclear and burning oil. All countries on earth that have
industrialized burnt gas, oil, coal and utilized nuclear for base load
i.e. 24/7 all year round assured ,quality and sustained availability
of electricity.

Wind, solar and hydro although cheaper in the short term they are not
available throughout, and hence are not reliable for industrial needs
(but they can go a long way in peaking arrangement i.e. taking the
load off the grid when used in households, offices that are
constructed in future enabling utilization of natural lighting and
installing solar panels etc.).

Imagine a nuclear power plant at Isiolo (or there abouts). With cheap
electricity one can pump water from Arthi and Tana river in the former
North Eastern Province and irrigate land; produce from the farming
would enable good health from eating well and setting of value
addition industries meeting your aim of 50% on agriculture and 40% on
manufacturing.\

Currently electrification rate in Kenya is 15% (47% in Nairobi and
less than 2% in most rural Kenya), 50% in Cameroon and Nigeria, 65% in
Ghana, 70% in South Africa, 98% in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria
and Libya! We need to stop comparing our electrification rate with
Somali, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi who are all below 15%!

Kind regards,

David

On 8/4/11, bitange at jambo.co.ke <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
> Collins,
> 1. We are in the same boat with strong winds.  I am simply saying what
> many people have said and we did not listen.  In 1989 I made a proposal to
> the Kenya Government on how we could independent.  The highlights of the
> proposal was to focus on modernizing agriculture through mechanization and
> setting aside large tracks of land where we could take advantage of
> economies of scale.  I said our future food security would be in threat
> due to climatic changes.  I said that land sub division should be halted
> and start rural urbanization to create land for agriculture. My thesis
> then and now was that subsistence farming was undermining economic growth.
>
> In my report I likened our situation with Switzerland.  Switzerland has a
> population of 8 million in an area of 15,940 square miles (size of Central
> Province of Kenya).  From here they it feeds her population and sends the
> surplus to Africa.  Further I said we were wasting a lot of money in
> Tourism to entertain just a few people.
>
> You can prove me right today but then I spent my entire holiday moving
> from one office to another trying to explain what would be a problem in my
> country.  Eventually I sat down with the then Director of Political
> Affairs in the Ministry of Foreugn Affairs.  He simply told me "young man
> you can go back to your USA here you are going to waste your time".
>
> 2. We are all creative in a way and really thank you for supporting my
> "candidacy".
>
> 3. 50% on agriculture then 40% manufacturing.  ICT does not need a lot of
> money to implement.  On average most countries spend 6% of their annual
> budget on ICTs.
>
> 4. This energy thing is critical.  The technology on Coal has greatly
> improved that you can have clean coal.  We must at least do 5,000 MW from
> this source for us to catch up.  We also must step up geothermal to fully
> exploit the green energy available.  In Northern Kenya we can use wind
> energy since it is naturally available.
>
>
>
> Regards
>
>
> Ndemo.
>
>
>
>
>> 1: Ill jump into this albeit late and begin with a reference to a
>> scriptural
>> parable of the talents in Matthew 25. The moral being that to whom much is
>> given, much is expected and the converse being true. as a rhetorical
>> question (you can answer if you like), have you made maximum use of the
>> two
>> talents you were given to deserve three in round two.
>>
>> 2: It is indeed a positive thing that you would even consider a Ndemo
>> Tosha
>> because in the bigger picture of things, it would be a definate
>> improvement
>> from the status quo. I like that you have Ideas and visions about what can
>> be needed to solve what, ICT indeed might be the holy grail in improving
>> process and equalizing a lot of the bumps that are exploited by uncreative
>> Kenyans for profit.
>>
>> 3: Onto my questions: Between Agriculture, ICT, Infrastructure and
>> Manufacturing, how would you allocate say theoretically a 1trillion budget
>> (just for these) and what would be the justification for leaning to which.
>> The devil would be in the details but a rough estimate would show
>> direction.
>>
>>
>> 4: Mention something about a) somalia, b) Southern sudan, c) EPAs and d)
>> Kyoto viz a viz cheap energy.
>>
>> cheers...
>>
>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 11:31 AM, aki <aki275 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Thank you Dr Ndemo for the comments.
>>>
>>> I'd also like to add that govt policies and programs are the initial
>>> catalyst drive because the private sector is what it is i.e. does not
>>> fund
>>> research or development ( not in Kenya ). And for many decades economic
>>> policies have placed favour over import versus local development, we are
>>> at
>>> a stage today that it would probably takes us another 40-50 years to
>>> even
>>> design/produce the simplest semi-conductor available on the market
>>> today.
>>> The same design can be done at University levels in other countries. We
>>> are
>>> really at a tough place because if we don't fast track with imports, we
>>> will
>>> get left behind. And if we don't implement long term ways towards core
>>> development, we are bound to become literally a "sales,marketing
>>> and consultants" country which only has very short term benefits. Today,
>>> we
>>> give the chance to external partners to help with technology needs and
>>> systems, yet we are capable of creating or building upon these given the
>>> correct environment. It will be our biggest loss in future if we do not
>>> change course and take on the internal development segment with force
>>> and
>>> commitment. Just as the US identified itself as a major defense exporter
>>> economy thereby creating most of the advance
>>> systems-engineers-mulit-million
>>> dollar industries--highly educated employment, I think we also need to
>>> define what we want to do and how to get there.
>>>
>>> Starting at Sciences is really good, but would you kindly add what esle
>>> would be the catalysts towards creating and sustaining internal
>>> development?
>>>
>>> Thank you.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, Aug 4, 2011 at 10:43 AM, <bitange at jambo.co.ke> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Aki,
>>>> You now can understand why we need to stop business and general degree
>>>> programmes.  This is why we are more of traders than industrialists. I
>>>> went to US for studies in the 1980's.  In 1987 I was President of
>>>> International Students at the University of Minnesota.  We were 5,000
>>>> foreign students in a student population of 120,000. The majority of
>>>> students were from Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea.  Of the Asian
>>>> students, 98% were in engineering courses the remaider were in creative
>>>> art degree program.
>>>>
>>>> These countries became what we call Newly Industrialized Countries
>>>> (NICs).
>>>> In economic comparative terms, they were behind Kenya.  Today we buy
>>>> everything from them.  They manufactured nothing then.  Infact we used
>>>> to
>>>> love at the Hyundai Ponny that was first manufactured by Koreans.
>>>>
>>>> We now must remove all fees for any student enrolled in science and
>>>> creative degree programs.  The rest can pay.  When we started producing
>>>> more computer graduates, we started seeing application development in
>>>> Kenya to the extent that the world has started to recognize.
>>>> Similarly,
>>>> if we indeed want to industrialize, we must move to science.  There are
>>>> no
>>>> options.
>>>>
>>>> India has just realized this and they are taking jobs from overheating
>>>> China.  Our comparative advatange in this region is the human resource.
>>>> Let us develop it, support it and guide it to the right direction.
>>>> Regional influence is what will matter in the days to come. As such we
>>>> must endeavor to see that Vision 2030 is realized in 2020.  This is
>>>> possible.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Regards
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Ndemo.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
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>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> *â€œThe twentieth century has been characterized by three developments of
>> great political importance: the growth of democracy, the growth of
>> corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of
>> protecting corporate power against democracyâ€ *
>>
>> ~  Alex Carey ~
>>
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>> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and
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> The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for
> people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and
> regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT
> sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.
>
> KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors
> online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth,
> share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do
> not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.
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