[kictanet] Might M-Kesho sound the death knell for (some) M-Pesa Agents?

[Francis.Hook at gmail.com]

1 - Equity Bank has abt 4.5 million customers.
2 - Lets wager that abt 70-80% are Safaricom subscribers...(3.15 - 3.6  
million) and possibly 80% of those use M-Pesa (wild guess)
3 - A Study conducted in late 2009  
(http://technology.cgap.org/2009/09/08/understanding-what-drives-profits-for-agents-m-pesa/)  
examined the factors that make an M-Pesa agent make a profit...as well as  
the challenges faced by such agents (which would most times lead them to  
say "hakuna float").
4 - As M-Pesa agents have become more pervasive, their profit margins have  
become thinner owing to competition (incl ATMs, super markets, etc). This  
is part of the premise of M-Kesho - to allow such agents to make revenue  
from additional services like insurance...
5 - M-Kesho essentially removes the need to have CASH transactions - either  
sending or receiving. However, to the operator the transaction fee still  
accrues, and to the bank, the deposits remain somewhat stable. If anything,  
for corporate users of M-Pesa (KQ, KPLC, etc) they can know have their  
accounts credited directly - no need to use an M-Pesa agent to load cash  
onto phone and then pay KPLC, Kenya Airways, etc.
6 - Thinking of the three or so million Equity Bank Customers who are  
M-Pesa users....will they EVER need to use an M-Pesa agent? before the  
routine to send cash was ...a) draw cash from ATM/Branch b)go to M-Pesa  
Agent c) send money - and vice versa to receive (go to mpesa agent, get  
cash, spend/deposit cash) - ergo M-Pesa agent has a role. Of course I  
admit, such account holders can still withdraw from their accounts using  
M-Kesho and get cash from an M-Pesa Agent (but I think this would be really  
really rare).

Will M-Kesho see some rationalisation in the number and size(type) of  
agents? Admittedly some of the more established agents can evolve into  
FOSAs for Equity (and other banks), but I think at the grassroots there  
might be a negative impact.

My two cents...

Francis
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