[kictanet] Pondering mobile competition

Wed Aug 25 16:32:02 EAT 2010

It would be interesting to see what impact SIM registration has on total  
subscriber numbers across all networks. In RSA, Vodacom alone shed one  
million subscribers when SIM registration was implemented. With the multi  
SIM card population we have (Yu, Zain, Orange in the wallet and Safaricom  
in the phone...or sthg like that...or two lines on one network obtained  
from handset offers etc), subscribers may be compelled to decide who is  
their "true love"....and now with the tariff wars raging....and with MNP in  
the vicinity push WILL come to shove.

On Aug 25, 2010 2:41pm, Walubengo J <jwalu at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Andrea,

> yes, indeed these are interesting times. but not for me, at least not yet.

> The high costs of voice communications have for a very longtime  
> socialized me into the (peculiar?) habit of NOT talking. I have grown  
> used to alternative means of communication and just feel too old to  
> suddenly start yapping. So of what use is 20bob, 8bob, 3bob, 2bob or even  
> 1bob per minute voice call if I rarely talk anyway ;-)

> My prayer is that these price wars will eventually move over from the  
> Voice to Data (internet) markets. That will be the day I will really get  
> excited...

> walu.
> nb: me-still-thinks Zain will not cause any significant dent on Safcom  
> 80% existing market share but shall instead gain 80% of all the NEW  
> subscribers over the next couple of months...but perharps am just being  
> biased since am told the Zain new owners
> have the money to sustain "loses" for longer periods of time(even 5yrs)  
> in order to cause a serious dent on the market leader's position. May the  
> best man and woman win.

> --- On Tue, 8/24/10, Andrea Bohnstedt  
> andrea.bohnstedt at ratio-magazine.com> wrote:

> From: Andrea Bohnstedt andrea.bohnstedt at ratio-magazine.com>
> Subject: Re: [kictanet] Pondering mobile competition
> To: jwalu at yahoo.com
> Cc: "KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions" kictanet at lists.kictanet.or.ke>
> Date: Tuesday, August 24, 2010, 4:38 PM

> The 'abuse' complaint was silly, I think: Zain's network was congested  
> from day one of their tariff launch. I'm sure, very very sure, that  
> telecoms professionals at both Zain and Bharti are, well, professional  
> enough to anticipate the need to increase network capacity if
> they launch such an aggressive tariff.

> You've seen the fun little leaked exchange between Rene Meza and Michael  
> Joseph - Zain approached Safaricom in the evening asking for capacity on  
> the Safaricom-owned link, and Joseph promised to look into this in the  
> morning. The interconnection agreement between both companies states that  
> this protocol can take up to seven days, as far as I understand.

> http://www.ratio-magazine.com/201008203586/Kenya/News-Analysis-Telecoms-Price-Wars-Gone-Dirty.html

> Either they could have just increased capacity before the launch, or, if  
> they were worried about alerting Safaricom to this, then just suck up and  
> tell customers that the network will be congested for another seven days.

> So for Zain to come out the next morning and shout about abuse is
> dishonest and a cheap marketing ploy that I think they really don't
> need.

> I'ma happy capitalist. Competition is a good thing, in Kenya as  
> elsewhere. So I'd like them to compete on the strength of their services  
> and concepts, not by overnight accusations of 'abuse'.

> Mind you, if Zain kill of Orange and Essar, we'll have a bit less  
> competition in terms of numbers, but hey ... :)

> Happy phone calls,
> Andrea

> On 24 August 2010 14:34, Emmanuel Khisa oloo.khisa at googlemail.com> wrote:

> Hi Andreas,

> You have spoken for me on this one...I have also wondered since  
> zain/bharti lodged their complaint with CCK over clogged network, were  
> they just playing spoilt kid or do they have a valid claim? My opinion is  
> that since they have experienced an unanticipated rise in subscribers  
> they didnt have the network infrastructure to support these calls and so  
> quickly blame the rival and make them look bad. But then again maybe they  
> have a valid case against the boys in green.

> Nonetheless the winner here is the consumer. Shall we safely say that we  
> have entered the third mobile revolution.

> On Tue, Aug 24, 2010 at 1:56 PM, Andrea Bohnstedt  
> andrea.bohnstedt at ratio-magazine.com> wrote:

> I'm wondering:

> Will CCK strictly enforce the cut-off deadline for unregistered SIM cards  
> at the end of August? Are Zain making sure that everyone picking up a new  
> line also register them immediately?

> If price war is Zain's strategy, will they have enough money left to  
> invest in infrastructure and customer service once their subscriber  
> numbers go up significantly? Will they be able to scale up both systems  
> quickly enough?

> Telkom Orange are cited in the media as complaining that the interconnect  
> rate also applies to their fixed line service and that this is not even  
> covering their costs  
> (http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Telkom%20unhappy%20with%20interlink%20fee/-/1006/995372/-/o9pm5az/-/).  
> I wonder if the two big ones having it out won't kill the two small ones  
> first?

> Bharti/Zain have also launched free sms alongside lower on and off-net  
> calling rates and free minutes in Nigeria:  
> http://telecomyatra.afaqs.com/news/?sid=1652_Bharti+subsidiary+Zain+introduces+free+SMS+in+Nigeria

> Happy afternoon,
> Andrea

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> --
> Andrea Bohnstedt
> Publisher
> +254 720 960 322
> www.ratio-magazine.com

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