[kictanet] Horizons Story Today....IPv4 depletion

alice alice at apc.org
Tue Dec 25 00:15:55 EAT 2007

It is now very clear that the the exhaustion of IPV4  will happen and we 
need to seriously begin to think about not only IPv6 but also allocation 
of the remaining IPv4 addresses.

 There has been a lot of discussions on various forums both regional and 
global regarding the same. With AFRINIC obviously taking the lead for 
discussions and contributions on policies on both.

Agree with you Vincent and others. There is an urgent need for awareness 
creation activities. We are planning on a number of activities on the 
same in 2008, we shall share the timetable to activities in a couple of 


Michuki Mwangi wrote:
> I have to disagree with both Njeri and Wash on all counts.
> IPv4 depletion is a reality both at the International and local levels.
> To the best of my knowledge is that Kenyan ISPs are the most
> conservative IPv4 assigners that i know. Each customers always gets a
> /30 (two public IP's) and have to pay to get an extra allocation. As a
> result most organizations use NAT in Kenya.
> Looking through the allocation criteria at AfriNIC for Kenya, we are
> amongst the top 10 consumers of IPv4 address space (in Africa) with the
> above conservative approach. Notwithstanding the developing focus on
> broadband and DSL at home with all operators and Mobile operators.
> There are many issues being addressed but the most pertinent ones to
> this discussion are;
> 1) The allocation criteria for the remaining IPv4 address space from the
> IANA to the RIRs
> 2) IPv4 secondary Market (aftermarket)
> * The current allocation criteria for IPv4 indicates that the IANA pool
> will be depleted in 2010. The IANA less than 50 /8's left in its reserve
> pool.
> * AfriNIC is only able to assign less than 1 /8 per year. In the same
> period, RIPE NCC will assign about 3 /8's and APNIC will assign about
> 3.5 /8's.
> Please see http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
> www.nro.net/statistics/
> This means that within a very short time, the IANA will be complete its
> allocation of its reserved pool to the RIR's with Africa currently only
> having 2 /8's will be faced with two challenges.
> 1) Slow usage of the address space in Africa will lead to a IPv4
> secondary market where providers from other regions will come to buy
> IPv4 space from the region to use elsewhere.
> 2) As a result, the AfriNIC IPv4 space will be quickly depleted and
> hence new IPv4 requests from genuine African ISPs including Kenya will
> not be honoured and have to switch to IPv6 or an amplification of the
> NAT'd environment that exists today.
> Like every other commodity faced with an impending shortage is bound to
> create a rush and a knock on effect. Needless to say that NAT is *BAD*
> its probably a high time we looked into the importance of having IPv6
> enabled networks. Trying to extend the life of IPv4 is postponing the
> inevitable and that will do none of us any good. Early adopters will
> stand to benefit - case in mind is Japan.
> FYI - IPv6 address space is free at AfriNIC at the moment whilst the
> price of Ipv4 is going to go up as the depletion date nears.
> Regards,
> Njeri Rionge wrote:
>> I want to concur with Wash, and confirm that the shortage will not affect us
>> in the way mentioned in the earlier email.
>> Both IPv4 and IPv6 platforms should work in harmony if the approach is
>> harmonized.
>> No need to go into much verbal technicality at this stage. Its still too
>> early in the day, discussions are hot in there heels, but nothing is
>> concrete yet. 
>> A need for attention on the scarcity of IPv4 is real from an International
>> perspective, and by and large should affect connectivity if the
>> harmonization is no synchronized globally and obviously locally.
>> Njeri,
>> On 12/20/07 5:01 PM, "Odhiambo Washington" <odhiambo at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> As it stands now, the IPv4 address assignment by ISPs in Kenya is
>>> grossly misused. The way IPs were assigned did not take into
>>> consideration the possibilities that the address space would soon run
>>> out.
>>> If the ISPs renumbered properly, Kenya would not be faced with the
>>> problem described here in the 2 years being mentioned. Besides this
>>> fact, there are so many ways to efficiently use a single IP address,
>>> which should also be looked into. If this is not done for the IPv4
>>> address space, even the IPv6 space will end up being misused, inasmuch
>>> as it's such a big address space.
>>> Besides the training on IPv6, perhaps you also need to include
>>> "efficient usage of address space" (with relevance to IPv4) in the
>>> training as well?
>>> There are devices out there which still don't support IPv6 because
>>> they have old firmware. Are these going to be tossed out of the window
>>> just because IPv6 is here? At what cost? ;-)
>>> On Dec 20, 2007 4:06 PM, Vincent Ngundi <vincent at kenic.or.ke> wrote:
>>>> This makes an interesting reading. I guess the way forward is to
>>>> setup an IPv6 task force to chart the way forward for Kenya.
>>>> KENIC, in conjunction with AfriNIC, is planning to host an IPv6
>>>> workshop in June 2008. Our target is to train 150 engineers on IPv6
>>>> deployment. We shall announce registration for the same in due course.
>>>> Regards,
>>>> -Vincent
>>>>>> [Daily Nation]
>>>>>> Horizons Magazine
>>>>>> 20 December, 2007
>>>>>> INTERNET: Connectivity capacity nears exhaustion
>>>>>> The country must upgrade to a new  platform before current
>>>>>> capacity is
>>>>>> exhausted
>>>>>>       In about two year time, aspiring internet users will be unable
>>>>>> to get connected or publish new websites.
>>>>>>       Further it will not be possible to new cyber cafes, let alone
>>>>>> the many government-fronted digital villages targeting rural areas
>>>>>> throughout the country. Critical Internet addresses that uniquely
>>>>>> identify users and resolves the location where a website is
>>>>>> located on
>>>>>> the internet will be exhausted, worldwide.
>>>>>>       According to the chairman of ICT Consumers Association of
>>>>>> Kenya,
>>>>>> Alex Gakuru, "The country will have depleted capacity for new
>>>>>> internet
>>>>>> connectivity unless internet infrastructure are upgraded to what is
>>>>>> called Internet Protocol version six (or IPv6) because the world's
>>>>>> current IPv4 will be exhausted."
>>>>>>       It will be too expensive, he says, and chaotic for the country
>>>>>> to continue using the current IPv4 and the Government needs to
>>>>>> address
>>>>>> this problem urgently. "ISPs only need to upgrade their systems at no
>>>>>> cost to consumers  assuring room for more expression, choice, and
>>>>>> opportunity. Consumers should not be charged because ISP equipment
>>>>>> only need reconfiguration since most are already IPv6 compliant
>>>>>> anyway."
>>>>>>       The ICAK chairman notes that the issue has been given the
>>>>>> publicity and priority it deserves, yet it will be too expensive for
>>>>>> the country to continue using IPv4 designed for the1977 Internet and
>>>>>> acknowledges the Kenya Network Information Centre-KeNIC's leadership
>>>>>> is best suited to ensure the smoothest transition to IPv6.
>>>>>>       Gakuru observes that with the worldwide increased connection of
>>>>>> internet-enabled mobile devices, such as GSM and WiFi phones more
>>>>>> hosts are making inroads into the internet each requiring an IP
>>>>>> address in order to connect and thereby causing a faster depletion of
>>>>>> IP addresses.
>>>>>>       An IP address is a unique number address that every computing
>>>>>> device connected to the internet is assigned. IP addresses are
>>>>>> used to
>>>>>> route traffic on the internet and can be seen as the backbone of the
>>>>>> internet.
>>>>>>       He explained that " the current IPv4 system can accommodate up
>>>>>> to for billion IP addresses but with the current world population at
>>>>>> six billion, then the internet cannot be for everyone. He says this
>>>>>> upgrade should be prioritised.
>>>>>> --ends---
>>>> --
>>>> KeNIC - The Kenya Network Information Center
>>>> http://www.kenic.or.ke
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>> ===================================================
>> Njeri Rionge
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